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Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X ETF Message Board

  • baumgartner_investments baumgartner_investments Jul 9, 2009 10:53 AM Flag

    Just an observation

    Yesterday FAZ traded 280,000,000 shares all day, a relatively large volume. Stock was reverse split 10-1. Already today FAZ has traded 22,000,000 in a little over an hour. 22,000,000 times 10 equals 220,000,000. All things considered that volume is extremely high!

    One could argue that those trades are sells, but I usually use GS as an indicator as to how FAZ moves. GS is up big today, almost $5, yet FAZ is only down a little, considering yesterdays close, and it is holding. So, it looks to me like buyers are holding the price up relatively well. When GS goes back down (earnings out Tuesday) FAZ (SHOULD) go up proportionally (should GS earnings disappoint).

    One could argue it is manipulation, that someone is "propping" up the price so they can dump, but that sounds conspiracish to me.

    Thoughts welcome.

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    • GS earning (both top and bottom lines) will be spectacular, due to the trading revenues and profits generated thanks to Fed's zero interest loan and Treasures free liquidity injection. It should not be a surprise to anyone. If all of a sudden a traders' fund increased by several hundred percent, if he is not a total idiot, it is not a difficult task to show one or two good quarters.

      Looking forward, the Fed is on shaky ground now, and their printing machine has already slowed down. That's going to kill GS and the general financial market.

      So near term, the fools to pop up the market a little bit, but in the not near future, the crash in inevitable.


      Ok, so much for the fundamental nonsense. Looking at the chart and the volume pattern, I agree with you that the market is poised to a down turn. GS' number is irrelevant.

      • 1 Reply to wsjjswwsjjsw
      • Printing machine slowing down?

        So long as foreigners continue to purchase our debt, I don't see any inflation worries. Perhaps that is what Obama was doing in Russia. As China purchases slow, maybe the plan is to sell to Russia. Nevertheless, we won't experience inflation unless we are forced to purchase our own. That is what real printing is.

        Nevertheless, the government will hold down yields as long as they can to clear housing inventories. (6-9 more months). They won't be able to do this without a second stimulus package. My guess is half the first one, about $300-400 billion. Money will not flow out of treasury bonds to securities until bonds fall and yields rise.

        Now we are either stuck in a trading range, or we will retest lows. To me, upside in market is small with downside risk weighing much heavier.

    • you are right, it looks like equivalent volume from yesterday has been matched today in the first hour of trading already.

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