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Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X ETF Message Board

  • freetacos88 freetacos88 Nov 12, 2009 8:40 PM Flag

    Chart patterns are as random as the shapes of clouds

    It took me a long time to finally realize this (7 months to be exact), I now believe that any day trade strategy that is based on a specific chart pattern repeating itself will not work over time.

    I have tested dozens of charts patterns, and nothing sticks, prove me wrong if you can.

    The 1 in 10 Daytraders that are successful, have good luck, and also have the balls to hold onto a losing trade until it turns into a winning one, which is to stressfull for most people.

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    • Just because you don't understand TA, that doesn't mean it's useless. The fact that you put your dismissal in simplistic terms like "any day trade strategy that is based on a specific chart pattern repeating itself will not work over time" and "I have tested dozens of charts patterns, and nothing sticks" proves to me that you don't understand it. It's not nearly as simple as trying to match chart patterns and reasoning "the last time there was a pattern that looked like this, such-and-such happened after that, therefore it will again".

      ==>
      prove me wrong if you can.
      <==

      Sorry, but I'm not about to try to type out an intro course to technical analysis and developing trading strategies that use it in a Yahoo post. That you issue this challenge on a message board, thinking that if anyone can prove you wrong, the proof can just be verbally summarized in a few paragraphs of text, demonstrates that you're looking at it in ridiculously simplistic terms. I suggest letting go of the misguided "either it's easy and mechanical and straightforward, or it doesn't work at all" approach, and stop assuming that just because you don't get something, there isn't any substance to it. The proof lies in the fact that there are many people who trade based on technicals for years and years with consistent success over time. Not a few major lucky breaks every now and then, but a record of consistent profitability over time.

      ==>
      The 1 in 10 Daytraders that are successful, have good luck
      <==

      Nothing can be more false. "Luck" isn't a personal attribute that some people have consistently over time. Anyone who relies on luck may appear "successful" for short periods of time, but will eventually lose.

      ==>
      and also have the balls to hold onto a losing trade until it turns into a winning one
      <==

      That's funny, if you mean just stubbornly hold on to a losing trade for dear life waiting for it to eventually go your way, without any particular reason to predict that it will turn around. Clinging to losing trades without ever limiting the downside and cutting one's losses is the surest way to guarantee that you'll eventually go broke.

    • Day trading is a zero sum game, one needs to be positioned in a variety of diversified short positions - FAZ, puts on SDS, etc...better short early then long late. Good luck.

    • "It took me a long time to finally realize this (7 months to be exact)"

      You are cattivo free taco!

      I had to >chuckle< at this as your "7 months to be exact" osmotically entered my brain and I got the joke. Slow sometimes I guess. :)

 
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