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  • fobama72 fobama72 Dec 21, 2009 11:22 PM Flag

    Thoughts on the Dollar?

    Here is a broader discussion, the jury is still out, however, it does not appear realistic to assume that the correlation is broken at this point.

    http://in.biz.yahoo.com/091209/137/bauq5u.html

    My current position - CALL Options on UUP for March with a boat load of PUTs and Shorts on broader market, financials, oil, gold.

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    • I find it interesting that the dollar is going up precisely around the holiday season when there is an extreme lack of liquidity. Just when you think there is a inverse relationship between the dollar and the equities markets, the dollar short trade starts to unwind and that relationship disappears. It seems an almost perfect time turn the dollar and still be able to work the markets. I wonder if the dollar will be driven up through the end of the year only to be turned down come the start of 2010. I also see a solid base for gold at $1k. Looking at the time we have left for the rest of the year, they could drive gold down to $1k. This could also put the dollar at 79.50 to 80.00. I also think the equities market hold or push slightly higher with a possible rally at the start of the new year as they put the dollar short back on. I hope I am wrong but it seems that this is the way they want to push things. Once they drive the equities markets high enough, they can raise rates while allowing a bigger cushion for the market to fall. But then again I am Technically a fundamental idiot.

 
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