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Boston Scientific Corporation Message Board

  • smskip smskip Aug 12, 1998 3:15 PM Flag

    On the way Down?

    Would that be the consensus?

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    • Expect 70 tomorrow and 65 by the end of next week. You really didn't think it was going up after the release of NIR?

    • everyone who was hanging around for the 'big
      announcement' will exit and the stock will have to trade based
      on the numbers - could be a little overvalued - huge
      debt load etc good long term hold though

    • I do not know your understanding of reported
      restenosis rates, but both GFX and Nir have performed
      EQUIVALENCE trials to J&J Palmaz-Schatz and demonstrated only
      that, equivalence. In fact, Ave's Micro stents have had
      several abstracts demonstrating equivalent initial
      results, but a greater late loss index than Palmz-Schatz.
      The etiology of this could be a chronic recoil due to
      poor radial strength, but that's speculative...the
      results are not.

    • Stock-Warrior--

      lawsuits are a strategic
      tactic used frequently by medical device companies,
      especially patent infringement suits. As a rule, patents are
      written as broadly as possible, and patent suits then
      clarify and define what is actually accepted as the legal
      interpretation of the claims presented in the patent. At any
      time a medical company will have at least one and more
      usually several infringement suits going, either as
      plaintiff or as defendant.

      Except in very blatant
      infringement the exact outcome of a lawsuit is hard to
      predict, and will take a long time to go through
      deposition and disclosure. Unless a court issues an
      injunction (not a very common action) the device will
      continue being sold through the process.

      I believe
      (though I don't have figures to back this up) that most
      suits are actually settled out of court, either with a
      settlement or some sort of licensing agreement.

    • Possible mergers are never a problem, it's the
      actual mergers that cause problems. Don't plan on
      corporate mergers as they seem to happen at an extremely
      random rate. If BSX can empty out some of the warehouses
      filled with NIR stents, I expect the stock will be
      upgraded. But that will take time to happen, next week is
      too soon. Try the middle of Fall.

    • You are both full of shit and a lier, and as a
      friend of BSX I'm glad you were admonished in the last
      post. I have worked with BSX for over a decade and know
      all top management (the same people who would not
      recognize you in roon) personally There are several very
      important issues the company has legitimate concerns about
      that affect their and your financial viability.
      1-
      They clearly had no choice but to overpay for Scneider
      to avoid patent infringement judgements that would
      have ruined them.
      2- It is disgraceful that the
      leading balloon company in the world should be so late to
      market with a stent- and then it is a stent developed by
      another company that they are paying off very
      well.
      3-All labs already have the shelves stocked with the
      competitors product and they are not going to place big
      orders for your stents until you convincingly prove
      yourself.
      Medinaol and BSX management are not getting along and
      Medinol has their name prominently displayrd on all your
      marketing material and actual product for the Nir. Goldman
      Sachs is working with Medinol on an IPO. What happens
      to the wonderful BSX Nir stent when Medinol
      establishes their own presence.
      4- Many of the excellant
      men and women who built Scimed into a great company
      before a dweeb such as yourself worked for them are no
      longer with the company.
      5-Major investments in
      rotoblater and IVUS will never return the money spent on
      them.
      6 The sales force isn't what it used to be. Many
      excellant sales people have moved into middle management
      and been replaced by weaker players and some have
      moved on to other companies, including AVE.
      So shut
      up and keep selling big guy because this companies
      stock price is in for a fall and you'll have to earn
      you're money from sales and not stock options(although
      it is unlikely you're important enough to have any).

    • Good call, Jock. Further to those fine points,
      J&J has licensed two companies to date, Cook and
      Medtronic. Strategically, these were good moves for J&J
      because 1) J&J received technology in a cross-license
      (marker bands from Cook, and Wiktor from Medtronic so
      they could practice Crossflex), and 2) J&J considered
      Cook and Medtronic non-competitive in the long
      run.

      J&J is much more concerned about Guidant and BSX as
      competitors, as they should, but law suits are decided by
      average guys in court rooms, a risky business. It is
      difficult for patent attorneys, engineers, and business
      pros to sort through patent complexities; now how
      would you like a panel of twelve amateurs to digest
      these complex engineering subtleties and make a billion
      dollar decision?

      The result is settlements. Two
      companies typically go to court and battle it out, see how
      it goes, weigh the strength of your opponents
      position, and settle on more or less favorable terms
      depending on how you view the court room drama. BSX will
      pay a royalty to J&J. How big a royalty? It depends.

    • $700-800M in stent sales over next 9
      months?????
      If that's your expectation, lookout below.
      I'm
      afraid NIR is going to be BIG disappointment. It
      will
      get a relatively modest share of the stent business
      and is definitely not going to significantly erode
      AVEI's sales.
      Possible MDT/AVEI merger will mean big
      trouble for BSX and GDT.

    • The Radius has been received well. period. My
      friends have told me of one facility which ONLY used
      Radius all week. Nothing else. There is a training issue
      with deployment but jumping 5-10mm? Come on, accept
      competition gracefully. I guess an improperly deployed stent
      can move slightly, but the catheter, or more
      importantly the markerbands appear to "jump". The combination
      of balloon and self expanding stent leaves me very
      optimistic for this stock for the next 3q

    • AVE is shooting blanks.

      What is the NIR
      infringing on?

      AVE is an articulated, welded-wire
      stent.
      NIR is a closed-cell flexible stent.

      NIR is
      covered by a US patent issued to Medinol, licensed to
      BSX.

      AVE is doing what most frightened companies do when
      there appears competition. It won't work!
      BSX will
      most likely counter sue citing AVE's effort to
      prohibit them from doing business.

      A lawsuit like
      this will make AVE harder to sell/merge with another
      company. The suit will be dropped or rejected.

      Do
      not sell your BSX stock!!!

      SAP

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