to get back to > 25 pretty soon. And when the
approval for the new stent is announced we could
potentially see an upward move to 30.
All this could
happen in the next 8 weeks.
From then its a questions
of Top Line and Bottom line results - the move to
40-45 could potentially come in April or May'00
depending on the Q'1 results and from the onwards its
anybody's guess !Should results for Q'2 and Q'3'2000 exceed
the street expectations and look good then BSX could
see anything between 45-60 sometime in July - after
that if we examine the BSX historical charts for the
last three years its been a downfall back to 20
Lets wait and see what happens - having got in at 27,
18 and 17 my initial targets are 30 (25%), 40(40%)
and then ride the gain to 55-60 or till I see a
I would not short this stock at anything
less than 45.
Good luck to all the BSX longs ....
as you do not have to live / love on margins!
- there could be a significant change in US stent
marketshares with the launch of a new stent in the second half
of '2000 - any guesses ???
My guess is that it will be settled before the
jury has to figure it all out.
Both sides can't
afford to lose and if one of them starts to feel the
tide is significantly turning against them they will
hire a conference room in a local hotel and hammer out
some kind of settlement. It may turn out that it looks
to the whole world that it is a tie, and they will
do some kind of deal behind closed doors where they
cross-license a few patents to each other, and GDT pays a few %
as a license fee or something.
It isn't clear cut
so I wouldn't like to speculate on who would win the
day if it went the full distance.
Can you imagine
a jury of 'lay people' getting to grips with the
subtle arguments set before them in such a complex case?
It is not out of the question that the judge orders
the two CEO's to meet each other at dawn one morning
and decide it in mortal combat. There is almost a
precedent for a judge taking such action - ACS v Schneider
about 10 years ago - anyone remember what the judge
told the two CEO's to do?
I agree that BII is finally starting to make a
move. Did you attend AHA? Conversations with mgmt.
indicate that marketing may finally be changing. The
bozo's who were running things were a joke. Their "Just
as good as a Zerox" mentality has kept them from
establishing a better position in the market than they
currently have. The 2 mm stent has done extremely well. I
had the opportunity to review some of the current
data and it is outstanding. Compared to data that I
have recently compiled on over 1,000 patients, their
TLR is less than 1/2. Do you know me woodfleet, I
think that I know you!!!
Great post Woody. Probably one of the best I've
seen on Yahoo for awhile, in any of the company
discussion areas that I follow. Gave me a good idea of what
to look for out of BSX in the future. Currently
holding for a recovery.
Glad you did well out of BCTBF. It is still
rising fast on the news of a stent deal with a major US
player, to be announced shortly (almost a 6x rise since
September 98). Would be good if it was BSX, but the rumours
point to Abbott as the partner. Shame if that happens
because BSX could use some new technology to excite the
market with. The BCTBF stent would do well in the hands
of BSX, less so in Abbott's hands.
I think BSX
will rise gently and recover to respectable levels
over the next three months ($27.50 by the end of Feb).
Remember that there will be new product launches from GDT
and MDT in the coming weeks. I think these products
will be received well, but am not so optimistic about
the gold-plated NIR. OK, so it will be more visible,
but clinical data for gold-plated stents is worrying,
with high restenosis rates reported (admittedly these
data were not generated with the NIR Royale). My
confidence in BSX would be higher if I could see a healthy
product pipeline and new technology. Also the confidence
of many investors would be increased if BSX was seen
to be sorting out the Medinol problem. This little
company has held BSX to ransom and delivered little in
the way of new technology recently - where are the
new stent designs? Two years ago in Washington at the
TCT I attended a meeting hosted by Kobi Richter where
he talked about all the new stent designs, features
and innovations that were in the pipeline. So where
are they Kobi?
There was also the prospect of the
taxol-coated stent, but it seems that BSX R&D is still trying
to perfect and optimise a cure for pig coronary
The point is that it is taking an
eternity for BSX to bring new concepts and products
through to market and they do not look very innovative,
or aggressive these days.
I think Mr Tobin should
be addressing these fundamental issues, together
with improving the moral of his troops and then
investor confidence will return.
BSX stock is still
cheap today, so I would recommend it as a 'buy' if I
were qualified to give investment advice. I may sound
critical above but I won't sell my BSX stock. To really
move it up at a fast rate needs an event that will
capture our imagination and solid evidence that Mr Tobin
is putting his house in order. He also needs to
retire some of the BSX old-timers.
I would be very
happy if the 'significant' event was a distribution
deal with BCTBF - then I would win on both counts as a
stockholder of both companies. But that seems
Next year I see a good first half for BSX, but then
further competition from new product launches which will
hit market shares further. JNJ will emerge as a force
in IC again with the scheduled launch of the Voyager
(receiving good reviews after its launch last month in
Europe) and to a lesser extent the launch of the BCTBF
stent in the hands of a capable partner, which will
dilute the market share of the current top three further
(this assumes that the rumour about BCTBF and Abbott is
true). The bigger threat is from JNJ, not just directly
in the market, but in the courtroom. Some
interesting chess moves to be made and played out with regard
to JNJ defending its balloon expandable stent
position. As I said, the first half of the year will be OK
for BSX with steady growth in the stock price and
Tobin getting his house in order. From the middle of
the year I think we will be in for another roller
coaster ride. The big loser next year will be GDT. I
think the Voyager will hit GDT harder than the others.
I would like to see some significant developments
within, and greater emphasis on, some of the other
divisions. For example Target and Meadox - are these guys in
a coma..or what? It is about time they justified
their existence and the price that BSX paid for them.
Premium price should mean premium performance.
all for now - look forward to some comments.
I am anticipating some interesting posts from
Woodfleet . She has been right on the mark on many of the
posts. I thankyou and amy andthe Guv for the
biocmpatibles tip. I bought in August and my holding has now a
little bit bigger than double what I paid for it. How
about some opinion as to the future performance of BSC?
How about the end of the year? Will we see better
performance next year?
when ever I see block trades there has been
upgrades following them, I also did dd on cnqr and found
alot of similarities to another stock I hold neon and
sure enough it started to follow the same pattern. I
sourced out a couple stocks that seem poised to do the
same as those two, do your own DD, ARX PVSW CNQR and
one that is just about at a vlue that will qualify it
to be purchaed by MM is COTT if anyone has any
thoughts on these or any Ideas please post I look for good
quality stocks with good value one of my favorites is
CMTO excellent co. strong earnings and is due for
certification on a new product.