I don't think that the exodus of many on the
sales force is any indication of buyout. If that were
the case, we would see a much stronger stock price
and stronger volume on BSX. If sales reps were
leaving because of a buyout, the news would have
I have spent quite a bit of time trying to analyze
the viability of the recurrent rumors that BSX is on
the verge of being bought out. See message # 8715 for
some of my observations regarding some financial ratio
It seems that BSX is struggling at this point, based
on many of the postings here and from what I read in
the press. Initially when a company goes public, the
shareholders have illusions that the stock is going to the
moon, and then they hit a stone wall, and reality hits
them. The truely prosperious times are probably behind
BSX. If they wait too much longer to make a deal with
someone, I think they know that they might then be in a
serious state of decline. They currently still have great
value. I hope they know that the time has come to make a
deal with someone.
For a time here, it seems this board has been
populated by strutting, loudmouth, profane persons.
much as I hate seeing your low valuation of BSX, I
have to agree. They have not proven the worth of a
higher number, despite what all of the speculators
Do you like to overpay for things? When a company
overpays it can be a drag on the company for many years.
$47/share covers everybody that has ever bought BSX, that
they don't take a loss.
Even at that price the
buyer will have to think really hard about doing a
deal. $47/share is almost 7 times sales and a price
earnings of 51.
I think I can clear some things up. First is Pete
and his family own alot more that 13 million shares.
I don't know if it is in a trust or something else
that is not showing up. I would think he owns at least
as much as John.
Second, I don't think John
want a status position anywhere. I believe he is
Chairman emeritus (sp?). He is the emotional leader, but
has little to do with day to day stuff anymore. Pete
on the other hand did not sell to JNJ in 95? because
they would not give him a seat on the board. After all
he is worth at least 2 billion and that does not
include his wifes fortune. I believe she is the
granddaughter of Eli Lilly (He owned a pretty big company in
Third, I don't think John and Pete and trusts and
families own 50% of the stock anymore. At one time this
was true. That was before all the mergers and
Fourth, everyone has a price.
I hope this
information was helpful.
Good luck. Lets get this
thing over 30.
The founders are close to retirement age, and
their kids should be in their 30s. If the founders kids
work at BSX, the founders are less likely to sell
their shares. The fathers' dreams at one time included
turning BSX over to the capable hands of the next
generation. Is this dream even remotely possible: i.e. what
positions if any do the kids have in BSX?
I agree that an impending buyout would not cause
sales reps to leave in fact it would probably do just
the opposite. If BSX got bought out the stock would
likely go up significantly, which means the reps would
make money on their options. Also anyone laid off as a
result of a buyout would likely get a good severance
package. Given the good job market it makes no sense for
people to leave in advance of a buyout. JMHO
I thought that if
an impending buyout was widely known by salesreps, I
would think that the news would have leaked and shown
up in the stock price and volume action. Disgruntled
employees typically talk and news like that spreads like
BSX is definetly struggling. All divisions are
experiencing heavy turnover in sales, especially for BSX,
which typically had low 5% turnover.
I do think
that the product pipeline is loosing up and the back
half of the year will be much better. In the mean time
Tobin is cutting expenses like a bandit to hit the
number. I think (no source) that they will hit the number
on the bottom line and stabilize the top line (maybe
even show some growth) this quarter. This should be
good for the stock price.
As far as comments
someone made on playing nice with Guidant. Remember,
Guidant also played nice with JNJ. I do not think you can
read into that too much. Maybe, everyone is sick and
tired of the lawyers being the only ones that make out
on the law suits.
The only rumor I have heard
is that BSX is going to buy STJ. I heard and posted
that it was going to happen 2 weeks ago. My source was
wrong. I don't think Tobin is ready to throw it in yet.
Maybe for 60 though. I don't think this stock will get
there for a long time to come.
regarding two of my recent posts.
10 day volatility has been extremely low in
comparison to its 100 day average volatility. Oftentimes
this forecasts a large more in the stock. Keep your
eye on it. Unfortunately, this technique, volatility
reversion to the mean doesn't forecast the direction of the