I am afraid it is time to pay the piper. I would be 100% cash, wait for the shakeout. 60-90% drop and massive municipality bankruptcies, massive corporate bankruptcies and personal bankruptcies, no one can pay the debt. Unfund pension liabilities will bring down along with account delinquencies many utilities. Bankruptcies like we had in the 1980's from the energy boom and bust VERY VERY VERY LIKELY. The causes, bubble markets and enormous debt, This will all correct. EXC will probably reorganize, bond holders will loose, and debt holders and divy will go to zero new stock issued with $5 or $10 price and divy of 50 cents per year.
If this is how you feel I would recommend you put all your cash into your mattress. Reward involves risk, and you don't appear ready to take on any risk. But what would happen if the Fed Gov't defaults and the dollar goes to zero ?? I don't know, maybe time to buy farm land in Iowa ??
People have been saying this is coming for nearly half a decade. And they've been laughably wrong. Peter Schiff still has mud on his face from investing in China rather than betting on a recovery in the US.
EXC will go lower just by the nature of how a three month investor panic works. That does not mean they will go bankrupt or that utilities are going out of business. As long as people need electricity, nuclear will be the cheapest producer and at current electric prices Exelon can easily service its debt.
Steven Cohen, famed founder of SAC Capital, has a $21 million stake in Exelon as of his last 13-F in October. Frankly, the company just announced on the call they were putting off several projects for a few years to maintain that investment grade rating, so it seems like they are committed to maintaining the dividend.
Your assuming everything is static, like PG&E did back then. They didn't see the big recession in 2001 or believe it was coming. EXC has overborrowed hoping things will turn around. Management has made huge mistaked buying and overpaying for two HUGE utilities, whose managements are laughing all the way to the bank after selling out to EXC. Hedging losses in the billions. Power prices going in the opposite direction. Nuclear Power now a very big handicap to growth, gas is much cheaper. Pension underfunding growing exponentially will eat up all profit and then some. Baby boomers demographics could kill this, the 60 something union pensions for electrical workers along with more frugal energy use amoung baby boomers, is the final straw that breaks this company.
If you think the past is a good estimate of the future, YOU ARE WRONG BIG TIME. The past was 90 million baby boomers in their peak spending years. The future is 90 million geasers in their peak declining years. THIS IS IT. May UTE's will have to protect themselves from the downsizing, since they did not manage to reduce debt before these demographics hit, baby boomers has started to retire 4 years ago, that is when EXC profit problems and free cash flow started to drop. Watch it accelerate and the end result will be restructuring through bankruptcy.