Over time, in a relatively free economy such as ours, wealth builds, companies profit & stock prices rise. This is not a smooth & continuous process, however, & periodically stocks prices collapse, companies go bankrupt & wealth is destroyed.
The question is, where will we go now? Let's focus on the Nasdaq for this question. What will happen first? Will the Nasdaq rise to 3000 (an arbitrary level that seems sufficiently high) or will it fall below the Sept 21st low of 1423?
The subtext of this question is: At what level must bears reevaluate the premise of a collapsing system AND at what level must bulls reevaluate a recovery anytime soon and take a defensive position.
Go on record here with your convictions and then be prepared to reevaluate them when the time comes.
[[JD,this is not for you because you know everything.Kolorado is telling it the way it is.Gold is no longer the staple of the world economy,it is the US dollar.Everything is relative to the US dollar.The depression was caused because the us dollar was backed by gold in the late 20s'.When the market started to slide all the dollars were taken out of the system.The select few had all the money and the Fed could not create liquidity because the currency was backed by gold.
This is no longer the case.Liquidity can be created by the push of a button.The risk is inflation because we are diluting our currency,but as long as things are worse on the world markets then at home, inflation isn't a problem.The dollar has never been stronger.
As far as recessions are concerned,they happen because things have a way of getting out of balance.This happens because the people in power are too slow to react.This happens on the way up but also on the way down.Naz 4009 by the first quarter of 2003.
All the best,Solong]]
Then on down to 1234 as I had said... Of course, that was a bit of a sarcastic joke at the time.
Then to 1050 - 1134... That's about the bottom this time.
Then it's back off to the races with all of the longs thinking that it is again over.
Till next time...
I doubt that this fall will stop at 1423, I believe I said 1234 and that may prove to be a bit conservative. The way the naz and spx have been acting lately I'm not so sure we'll have to wait for late march for the answer.
Did ya see the mm's trying to prop this POS above 21.5 today? Rimm's down button is gonna get a good pushing real soon IMHO, it's just a matter of time. Lotta shares changing hands with very little movement, that can't be good...
Well, maybe everyone will start to feel patriotic over the weekend and go buy stocks on monday, stranger things have occurred.
Then maybe I'd get my wish for rimm... ~24.75, yah... I've lowered my expectations yet again. The end of the month is next week, maybe window dressing will help out.... one can only hope....
I went on record at the time with 1423. I remain firm on my stance. I also don't think you'll find a lot of the then 3000 voters hanging around right now. I think that might be a clue as to the answer to part of your secondary question.
[[ I would stay away from gold because this is a useless commodity.I think that it is well past its time and it is only a matter of time before this house of cards comes crumbling down. Maybe hedge with another currency like the British Sterling is what I would do.]]
You mean like diamonds dollars and platinum? The value of anything is only the value placed on it by us. The house of cards that needs to come down are the world stock markets. This single event would put us in the position we need to be in in order to rebuild on a sound economic footing.
[[The reason I don't think 1423 is in the cards is because it is not in the best interest of the banks,fed and US government.When stock values get so low then all the borrowing power is taken away from the individual companies.They no longer have colladeral and nothing slows the economy more than this. ]]
So what you are saying is the US goverment, Banks and the FED manipulate the stock markets. So much for a free market economy; So much for capitalism.
What we need is for the US goverment to go hard after the scammers, shammers and liars who artificailly pump up markets and who caused this mess in the first place. Start by reining in the paid 'experts' on CNBC, CNNFN, and the brokerage houses that talk through both sides of their mouths.
[[4009 is no stranger then 1423.]]
If any of us truly new where the market was going in the next year we would not need to post on this board.
although I am a NAZ bull I don't agree with you about gold. I think gold is still the most important commodity on hand. Every wealthy world banker, financier and speculator know it's importance. Gold has more significance to Alan Greenspan than any currency, world event, default or war. You will never hear about this from the treasury secretary or the FED secretary tho. That is because the price of gold is fixed by the central bankers of the G7. There is no gold free market and there hasn't been since the 1980s. It is true that you can buy and sell gold, but only in relatively small amounts. If someone like Warren Buffet or Bill Gates wanted to invest 30-40 Billion in Gold, they would get a polite call from the US treasury asking them to reconsider. And they would comply. Buffet can buy as much silver as he wants, because there is no G7 control of silver as it is not held by the G7 banks. I will not go into more detail, but suffice it to say that Mr. Bin Laden has done nothing to challenge the G7 control of the Gold price and therefore the USD is allowed to dominate world trade and world investment. When the G7 loses control even for a few days, when world wide demand for goods and dollars lessens and social unrest threatens the world order, you will see gold top 300. If the G7 were to lose complete control gold would top 700. Then you would see meltdown of central bank dominance over the world financial structure. Then you would see the unraveling of the USD scheme and the rapid repatriation of foreign funds and stock market and bond liquidation. Then you will see NAZ 500 not NAZ 1423. It would take a rouge entity to initiate this. This entity would be worse than 2,000,000 Bin Ladens. But the entity would need 300 Billion USD to pull it off. Until this happens, the US markets will funtion well and USD controlled industry will attract capital. Mine included.