"Seven joins Visto Corp., Research In Motion Ltd., Good Technology Inc., Extended Systems and Intellisync Corp. in jostling for market placement. RIM is far and away the leader, with more than 3 million customers toting its popular BlackBerry gadgets, but its position isn't assured."
Off topic... and well down memory lane. WordPerfect lost because they wouldn't / couldn't develop good code for Windows 3.x. Windows ended up taking over the world. Good lesson for all (including RIM) to remember.
The other thing I like about the Word Perfect example is that it was and still is far better than MS Word. Much smaller file sizes, better features etc. Being the best however isn't good enough to retain market share.
The MOT device will most likely have much more functionality with the ability to download a host of useful programs, much more memory, options such as camera, video, mp3, a better screen and process for web surfing, etc. And it will have blue tooth for the car with music and phone. We'll see. But that doesn't mean an newer BB model won't add many of these capabilities. If BB was smart they'd hook up with SIRIUS and add sat. radio. But I don't see that happening... more likely PALM will do something like that.
In short, buy MOT sell/short RIMM.
You are probably looking at the highest level that RIM will achieve right now. I see it going down from here because the competition is heating up.
Probaly 90% of the folks that trade this stock are not yet aware that Motorola has entered the race but when they do, you will see some panic selling.
There is plenty of room for all players but let's face it, RIM will lose the edge it once had as prices and market share start dropping.
I expect to see insiders start dumping some of their position once the news is fully digested. That was a great example you gave with Wordperfect for they were a company that had 100% of the market like RIM and then suddenly dropped to less than 5% today. Shareholders back then i'm sure were just as surprised back because they assumed that because they were in this space first, they would remain the dominant player.
Well guess what, things do change for the better because compatition is what makes prices affordable for the little guy.
From what i've heard, Motorola's new Franklin RIMlike handset is awesome and will sell like hotcakes although, I will have a difficult time parting with my Blackberry unless it offers newer functionality that does not yet exist in the RIM Blackberry device.
I agree, coathanger. RIMM was and is the leader. They will, most likely, over the next year to 18 months come out with some very good new products to make it harder for the competitors to steal market share. However. I think they will lose share to Nokia, Mot, Samsung, Palm and the the rest of the handset/PDA makers along with the carriers. But there will most likely be enough good news to hold the stock up somewhat; that is the decline should not be that rapid. The stock is priced for 30% growth and I don't think they'll achieve that. There will be news and earnings bumps and dips, but the trend IMO is downward, as competition heats up. In the long run there is at least a 50% chance that MS will take the whole market from RIMM as they did with Word Perfect. If you're not old enough to know Word Perfect, they once owned 80% of the word processing market and now as you know it's almost all controlled by MS Word.
So what should an investor do? Trade, not buy and hold. I'm short and I sell puts and swing trade -- however I never go long.
Don't get me wrong - I'm very much pro-RIM, one of the very few stocks I trade (I bought once and continue to hold). I was just throwing out a hey new technology out there anyone know about it... Does AAA remove some of the advantage of middeleware.We talk a lot about it's the middleware or hey it's the device that drives the enterprise space, but I think infrastructure providers (Nokia, Nortel, Ericsson etc) have done their homework too and are looking at the pie. Let's face it everyone is trying to mobilise a Microsoft product (exchange). Not now, not in 24 months (my guess) heck maybe not in 100 months (7yrs) as you mentioned, but at some point they'll figure out a way, the correct way to mobilise there own product. RIM is far and away the leader, forget good, visto, sync etc... consider when does Micrsoft show up with the right solution and time your exit accordingly for me that's 24 months, during that time we'll see what RIM has and my guess is they have a lot. Do you agree?
MOT could be a buy relative to RIMM, but not next week.
You folks don't work in business apparently. Just because somebody comes out with a new wrinkle on week1, doesn't mean business people convert in week 2 or week 100 for that matter. Especially because long before that the people they use have heard their modified needs and met them. Learn from IBM. If you equated IBM to RIMM, IBM would have been long gone.
Competitors and imitators coming out their ying yang. But, they are still here and not doing too badly either. Why? Because they didn't stand still. Nor will RIMM and why would you assume they will?
I for one will give RIMM a "little" more credit than continuing to sit in an igloo in the Canadian north lands watching that blinking light go over head and wondering what happened? what happended? what happeeeennnnddddeeeeddddd? ........
Great posts, I've been reading the RIMM board for sometime and it was your posts along with a few others that said to me what the hell I'll post...
I've been hearing a bit about AAA Servers - An AAA server is a server program that handles user requests for access to computer resources and, for an enterprise, provides authentication, authorization, and accounting (AAA) services. The AAA server typically interacts with network access and gateway servers and with databases and directories containing user information. The current standard by which devices or applications communicate with an AAA server is the Remote Authentication Dial-In User Service (RADIUS).
From my limited grade 5 understanding this is when the Carrier through advances in Network infrastructure can become the middelware - ie, RIM, Good, SYNC, VISTO, Seven etc. I think... and again far from being the expert in this field this is how Microsoft is going to play ball. No need for a data centre, it's built in. That said - still long RIMM + 2 years. And Harryhoundstooth this is good for MOT but not for a few years :-) I like what MOT is doing I too think it's a buy, but I don't own any, maybe next week.