Although I am short, it is starting to look as if the market has priced the damages in. The market seems to think that a lasting injunction is very unlikely because it would benefit neither RIMM nor NTP. A settlement is much more likely, and the market seems to think that the value of the settlement won't be so great that RIMM should be much lower than $60 per share. Let's not forget that the company has lost 25% of its value in recent weeks. I hope I am wrong. I would love to see RIMM fall apart. I do expect it to weaken some more b/c technically the stock looks ill. But am I expecting dramatic declines, no.
Interesting thread here
I particularly like this point you made:
"The injunction was already issued. RIMM stopped it through the appeal process which they have lost."
NTP doesn't have to ask for an injunction - they've already got it.... They only have to ask to have the delays in enforcing the injunction lifted...
By the way all of this shuckin and jiven is all about time. Time to let the instis out of they're positions. Watch for the same type of movement you saw friday. Flat than drop flat than drop more flat and than what the hellllll.
pain pain and more pain.
Well said. Last post. With this market in such a tizzy why in god's name would anyone be long in this stock?
it's beyond me.......
i contacted pablo perez (anylist) this weekend. He says rimm is a sell and with a target of $45. Gave me good reasons why also. I am shorting more on monday.
and will be loading up on palm.he has a target of $50 for palm.
One last word before I hit the sack.
It's not the final outcome so much as it is the timing of the events.
RIMM has little upside anyway. They have a 38 PE, they have missed lowered guidance for four straight quarters, and competition is popping up all over the place. I question whether we can believe their accounting. The margins they claim on their hardware sales are way out of whack with the rest of the industry. Their net subs acquired last quarter was very low.
RIMM is a long term loser, with little upside and if things go poorly, they could go to single digits, perhaps even go bankrupt (although that is very unlikely).
I see $74 as an absolute maximum (a short lived pop, that I would short more into), and $5 as an absolute minimum within the next 6 months to a year. The money to be made here is on the short side. And there isn't even that much risk in it. I can deal with losing $10 per share.
Don't forget that the Appeals Court waved off 9 of the 16 original infringing patents, hence why it went back down to the DC for 'revision'. If nothing had changed the Appeals would've upheld the judgement without having to send it back lower (if I understand correctly how the US legal system works).
So there are 7 left. Now even with 1 patent NTP can ask for an injunction, but a settlement on 7 patents is not the same as a settlement on 16.
And there's that 450Mil issue that occured in between. Everyone's speculating on its impact towards the review (ex: you think it's fluff, while I believe that there might be something to it). Again, we won't know till someone clarifies that.
I do agree that the USPTO's ruling and the USSC's reiview acceptance are long shots.
I do agree on that "going back to the same judge isn't good for RIM" though.
However I dissagree with the "snubbing their nose at the US legal system" remark. The Appeals did give points to RIM in the 3-panel review, and we all know that this is how things work. Even amongst US companies they pull out all the works. Happens in every developped country. Hence why I qualify the legal procedure the same as politics. In the end both sides will use the rulings to leverage the settlement (NTP's winning this one).
I agree with you 1 billion is assumed right now.
Why would NTP settle now, before an injunction?
Keep in mind the court has already given NTP a victory. The only reason RIMM is still doing business in the USA is due to the appeals process. Nothing has changed to cause the courts to change its decision. In fact since RIMM is still in violation of the patents, after losing and appealing, I would think the court would be losing its patience with RIMM.
They are snubbing their nose at the US legal system. Spencer already sides with NTP. RIMM can't win in court. Not in the Virginia court anyway. In the supremes they might have a chance (slight), but they will never get in the door imo.