Where is the little guy?
Barrons points out that the small investor has completely missed the bull market meaning the bull market really has a long way to go.
Barrons missed the point entirely.
The little guy is 90% short. RIMM is a shortselling favorite for the little guy.
<Boomers made the SM bubble in the 90s, the housing boom in the 80s, the school and college boom in the 60s and 70s, the toy and baby food boom in the 50s....everywhere they created a new anomaly.
When they start to retire they will be selling their stocks to get cash to live on.>
This is absolutely true, imo. But a spectacularl worldwide growth boom and a trillion recycled dollars from Asia are offsetting factors that the bears never choose to think about.
<You missed my point. It doesn't matter if the market is aware of the real estate debt issues or not. What matters is that individual investor is stuck with this debt, and that means they won't be coming back to the US market anytime soon.>
They'll make it back eventually. And I strongly suspect it won't be at better prices than today's, given their timing history.
<Concerning the inflow from foreign gov'ts and investors... as you state, that is well known by the market and priced in.>
This I'm not so sure of. When the housewives are talking about foreclosures, I can be pretty sure the real estate slump is priced in. I don't think sovereign wealth funds are a common topic of barbecue conversation.
The first boomer turning 62 happens in 2008. Then 17 years of a booming stock market.
Boomers made the SM bubble in the 90s, the housing boom in the 80s, the school and college boom in the 60s and 70s, the toy and baby food boom in the 50s....everywhere they created a new anomaly.
When they start to retire they will be selling their stocks to get cash to live on. I think you have it backwards but, I really don't care if you agree.
Right on Fundamentals!
We are in for a rough few years and after that the largest bulge of the curve of boomers will be cashing out for their retirement.
There isn't really a lot of good news aheadthat I can see.
And the idea that a relative handful of retail shorts are pushing up the SM is ridiculous.
You missed my point. It doesn't matter if the market is aware of the real estate debt issues or not. What matters is that individual investor is stuck with this debt, and that means they won't be coming back to the US market anytime soon.
Concerning the inflow from foreign gov'ts and investors... as you state, that is well known by the market and priced in.
Over the next year, many ARM's will start rolling over into higher rates. Real Estate investors are going to be stuck with higher and higher bills on properties that are worth less and less. And this time around, they won't be able to refinance because rates are higher, and properties are worth less.
I am not short RIMM, because this is one of the few companies that are still growing, but these valuations are looking stretched, and 10% pullback is in order. This stock has been going straight up for months without a significant retracement. Are the prospects for this company really 4x better than they were 8 months ago? We are much closer to a multi year top, than to a multi year bottom.
Man get a Life.
Are you unemployed? You are posting almost every 5 minutes.
You know like the rest of the investors, this stock is not worth this much.
Watch for it to fall sharply next week or when Longs come to their senses.
Have a nice day.
<A lot of people have pointed out that the Dow and S & P are really down in Euros.>
Funnily enough, a great many of the people who have pointed that out are short the market...the worst thing you can do when a market is melting up in nominal terms while whatever dollars you still have are losing their value.
I take all your points about leverage and mispriced assets, but this macro stuff plays out unpredictably over generations and is not a great basis for trading, imo.
A lot of people have pointed out that the Dow and S & P are really down in Euros. It's the declining dollar that has created bigger profits for a lot of S & P companies. Also, short positions are not that high, but does help prices higher on short covering. Margin debt is very high, exceeding March 2000. Nobody talks about margin debt. The system is highly leveraged, assets are mispriced, and those mispriced assets are used as leverage to obtain more credit. You can now see some effects of the Bear Stern problem. I think it's a much bigger problem, but it will have to be contained right up to the election in 2008. GB better not stop the war in Iraq. That has helped the economy a lot, created a lot of direct and indirect employment. The present housing and subprime crisis along high debt levels cannot support an increase in unemployment due to stoppage of the war without a recession IMO.
<MOM & POP will never come back to the market for they know when they do they'll br cleaned out.They know they're the contra indicator.>
This board doesn't even realize they're the contra indicator and they're interested in the market. I guarantee mom and pop don't have the slightest idea.