Meisels & Tippins: Use Rallies to Move to Cash Posted on Aug 18th, 2007
Larry MacDonald submits: Stock market indexes have been below their 200-day moving averages for several days now, a bearish sign for many technical analysts. The S&P/TSX Composite index closed yesterday at 13,048.76, down 11% from the peak in mid-July and 3% below its 200-day moving average; the S&P 500 shows similar declines.
The indexes have been down to their 200-day moving averages several times during the current bull market, but each time managed to rally back strongly. So far, a rally is nowhere to be seen. But in their latest Phases & Cycle investment newsletter, Ron Meisels and David Tippins call for "a concerted rally attempt by the oversold S&P 500 � likely from a point somewhere in the low 1400s."
However, they add, "there is substantial overhead resistance in the high 1400s/low 1500s, and this will prove worrisome for the bulls." Their advice: don�t join any market rallies just yet. In fact, use them to move into cash.
But as of their last missive, they haven't given up on the bull market: "For the long-term it is far too early to declare this longstanding bull market 'dead, since [their italics] the long-term [200-day] moving averages for the major market indices still point upwards ... " Look for another upleg to begin "when the leaves fall," conclude Meisels and Tippins.