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BlackBerry Limited Message Board

  • vivrant1717 vivrant1717 Oct 23, 2007 7:15 PM Flag

    Merrill & Goldman evening comments

    Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs both released notes this evening praising RIM's new China deal.

    Merrill re-iterated a price target of $140.

    Goldman also reiterated a bullish stock rating, with both analysts suggesting this is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of long-term growth.

    RIM's installed base is only 11M subscribers, China has 515M wireless users! just a fraction of that penetrated would lead to several million new subscribers.

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    • where can i find this comments?

    • where can i find the merill &goldman comments on rimm on the web?

    • Did these crooks say anything about user base in canada? Or anywhere else except us?

    • If the news was something unexpected both MER and GS would have upped their targets. They didn't do so because this 'news' is not worth rat's ass.

      • 1 Reply to koibito9999
      • they didn't up their price targets because they haven't raised their estimates yet.

        the point is, this is a long-term growth catalyst for RIM, and opens up an entirely new pandoras box of earnings growth possibilities, namely overseas.

        the stock will move right away, to reflect increased growth prospects over the next few years.

        estimates and price targets will move up, as per usual, once the bulk of the stock move has ALREADY HAPPENED.

        you can either choose to be obtuse and wait for a broker to raise their target to justify you buying the shares, or, you can buy now, and simply average-down if it drops, and be up huge within 6-12 months.

        your choice.

    • GS was a bit more circumspect then what you convey in your message.

      • 1 Reply to thermopylae_480bc
      • if you're implying they didn't raise their estimates or price target, then yes, they were a bit more circumspect.

        however, they maintain the same rating on the stock, despite the 10% move today.

        if they were concerned about valuation, i'm sure they would've cautioned readers.

        however, no where in the note did they mention concerns about valuation or a belief that the shares will take a breather.

        Merrill was obviously more forthright, reiterating their price target and implying that estimates longer-term are likely conservative.

        The analyst community now has to wait for more 'color' from RIM and its partners in this endeavour in order to come out with revised estimates/target prices.

        I doubt you'll see model changes in analyst reports at least for another quarter.

        That does not mean you don't need to buy the stock, quite the contrary, given today's announcement, RIM is now firmly set to enter the Chinese market, and that doubt/uncertainty is removed, thus, the stock needs to price in that new reality.

        The question is; how much do people want to pay, when RIM has only penetrated 1% of the wireless market?

        I'd have to say upside is much higher after today than it was yesterday, and i'm not talking 5 years from now, i'm talking within weeks/months/quarters.

        good luck

    • we all know that, has no bearing.

      RIM has the license and they have the brand power.

      redberry doesn't have the momentum that the 'crackberry' has.

      especially in the enterprise space, where RIM will initially target Chinese users.

      consumer space won't likely be penetrated until late '08 or early '09.

      but on the enterprise side of things, expect RIM to gain hardcore traction quickly.....quicker than even the bullish analysts are predicting.

      it will happen.

    • ...the hype will bring this stock way above that ($140) - the reality in China will be different. Ride the hype is all I can say. Be careful.

      • 1 Reply to mkm_66_66
      • agreed. i think they'll easily do $4.00 EPS in FY'09 (which is calendar '08 essentially),

        and applying a conservative 40X multipe (based on 1X peg given 40% growth rate), the stock will easily be $160 in the first half of '08.

        i'm thinkin' we'll probably see a run to $135-145 by December of this year.

        probably $130-135 within the next 10 days, and then a pullback into the $120s, and then finally another rise into December.

        tommorrow morning would be the best entry point you'll get these next couple months. it should hold the $119 range tommorrow morning, and then it'll base around here, and then within a week you'll see $125-130, and $135 in 2 weeks, and then my $135-145 range by December.

        good luck.

    • except no chinese will subscribe. A college graduate made 2,000 RMB a month, that is about $300 U.S.

      • 6 Replies to whoknow001
      • You would be surprised how wealthy the Chinese are - especially the business people, who are the target market for RIMM

      • If you really believe that Rimm and its product wont be excepted in China then I'm afraid you'll be sadly disappointed when the numbers come out in Jan!!..Either way good luck.

      • This is know the end of 2007. What happened in 2006 original announcement. Merrill, Goldman and the rest of the gang need to get out and what better way then on the heels of aapl. They own the float they need to make you think this is a homerun. Then when its over you'll find out it was a foul ball and your out. Less then a month ago China said that the blackberry was not coming into China. You could not find and they would not be marketed. So we know have a miracle. I notice from reading that they are very vague with their release but they did have their automated program going full blast to mimic 2000 over again. They perfected the science of pulling of the scam. All they need is for you to join in the game so they can get their homerun and you take the out.

        China's got RedBerry
        Cheaper rival hits the market on eve of RIM's long-delayed debut
        GEOFFREY YORK AND SIMON AVERY

        From Tuesday's Globe and Mail

        April 11, 2006 at 4:26 AM EDT

        BEIJING and TORONTO � On the eve of its long-delayed China launch, BlackBerry is facing a sudden challenge from a cheaper Chinese rival called, unapologetically, RedBerry.

        The new service, aimed squarely at BlackBerry, was launched this month by China Unicom Ltd., the state-controlled telecommunications giant that ranks as China's second-biggest mobile operator.

        The new RedBerry service could pose a major challenge to Research in Motion Ltd., which is planning to launch BlackBerry in China by the end of next month. Its China launch has been delayed by two years of negotiations and regulatory obstacles, and RedBerry has now been introduced ahead of it.

        China Unicom left no doubt that it is brazenly attempting to capitalize on BlackBerry's global fame.

        "The RedBerry name extends the vivid name of BlackBerry that people are already familiar with, and it also combines the new red symbol of China Unicom," the company said in a press release.

      • I was out today so missed this new so called hype. What a bunch of bullshit so we know have a 70billion one trick pony. Everyday this gets better and better. I guess the feds are counting on Canada to save America. This is 1999-2000 revisited courtesy of Goldman and Merrill. Now wasn't Merrill a big player in scamming alot of investors in 2000. As a matter of fact merrill stole a good portion of my retirement money with there scam stocks. And the crooks got away with it then and they'll get away with it again.

        Con artists at their best and each time they use foreign companies to purportrate the game. Let's see gandalf was one of theirs last time. Ask them what happened to gandalf and my money and the retirment money of my friends. They put us in these gems and then raped us of all we had.

      • China Unicom will charge a rate which educated, upper-middle class chinese people can afford.

        similiar to NA, some can't afford RIM, some who have above-average income and education, $300 bucks is chump change.

        China has a growing middle class, and the upper-middle class has doubled in less than 1 year!

        Upper-middle class will buy, and buy for their children as well!

 
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