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BlackBerry Limited Message Board

  • goldpermabull goldpermabull Oct 9, 2011 6:34 AM Flag

    Some perspective, and the big picture

    Yearly revenues for RIM:

    1997 - 12 million
    1998 - 33 million
    1999 - 47 million
    2000- 85 million
    2001 - 221 million
    2002 - 294 million
    2003 - 306 million
    2004 - 594 million
    2005 - 1.3 Billion
    2006 - 2 Billion
    2007 - 3 Billion
    2008 - 6 Billion
    2009 - 11 Billion
    2010 - 15 Billion
    2011 - ??
    2012 - ??
    2013 - ??
    2014 - ??
    2015 - ??
    2016 - ??
    ... You get the point.

    Ironically, the stock is currently trading where it was in 2004 when RIM had only a little more than 1 million subscribers, had revenues of only 594 million, and earnings of 51 million for the whole year.
    The years before that subscribers were in the "thousands" to hundreds of thousands and it wasn't until only 7 years ago that RIM surpassed the 1 million subscriber base. Margins in 2004 were 45%, however in RIM's previous transition period in 2002 and 2003, margins were from 28% to 35%, having fallen from 43% in 2000. It's called fluctuation of business cycles and concurrently margins have always fallen during a major company refresh and transition to higher end products.

    When the iphone was released in 2007, RIM had 3 billion in revenues for the entire year, had a total of 8 million subscribers and earned 382 million for the entire year of 2007, or 486 million before income taxes.

    As RIM is now preparing for their new phase of growth, going through a transition period with clearly some mistakes, just as Apple, IBM and Cisco have made along the way, their margins are going slightly lower once again as they did in 2003 for the next product cycle rebuild and push. The PlayBook is a powerful device. QNX is the most fluid and seamless OS I have used or experienced to date or that is out there, but the PlayBook was not ready as we all found out after it was released, because of NO native SDK and not enough apps. They're making the transition now fluidly and if you don't know "who" is at the helm of this now, then you don't deserve to know the details because you haven't done your dd.

    It's funny, ironic and sad to me that investors who post here, and in general, have such a small, narrow and macro view of the big picture, treat the global smart phone and everything else emanating from that as a short term fix, or that a small window of time determines everything as to what is ahead. The extreme negativity surrounding RIM from both media and analysts, not to mention bloggers who likely don't even have any kind of respectable education, or much knowledge at all for that matter, is only being fed by managements current mistakes, learning curve and transitioning to a higher and more efficient global platform, and one that is truly "Blackberry".

    Earnings will return in huge numbers over the years ahead, as shorts and bashers scratch their heads, trying to find their inner truth and soul. I doubt many of them even have that.

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