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BlackBerry Limited Message Board

  • goldpermabull goldpermabull Oct 9, 2011 6:34 AM Flag

    Some perspective, and the big picture

    Yearly revenues for RIM:

    1997 - 12 million
    1998 - 33 million
    1999 - 47 million
    2000- 85 million
    2001 - 221 million
    2002 - 294 million
    2003 - 306 million
    2004 - 594 million
    2005 - 1.3 Billion
    2006 - 2 Billion
    2007 - 3 Billion
    2008 - 6 Billion
    2009 - 11 Billion
    2010 - 15 Billion
    2011 - ??
    2012 - ??
    2013 - ??
    2014 - ??
    2015 - ??
    2016 - ??
    ... You get the point.

    Ironically, the stock is currently trading where it was in 2004 when RIM had only a little more than 1 million subscribers, had revenues of only 594 million, and earnings of 51 million for the whole year.
    The years before that subscribers were in the "thousands" to hundreds of thousands and it wasn't until only 7 years ago that RIM surpassed the 1 million subscriber base. Margins in 2004 were 45%, however in RIM's previous transition period in 2002 and 2003, margins were from 28% to 35%, having fallen from 43% in 2000. It's called fluctuation of business cycles and concurrently margins have always fallen during a major company refresh and transition to higher end products.

    When the iphone was released in 2007, RIM had 3 billion in revenues for the entire year, had a total of 8 million subscribers and earned 382 million for the entire year of 2007, or 486 million before income taxes.

    As RIM is now preparing for their new phase of growth, going through a transition period with clearly some mistakes, just as Apple, IBM and Cisco have made along the way, their margins are going slightly lower once again as they did in 2003 for the next product cycle rebuild and push. The PlayBook is a powerful device. QNX is the most fluid and seamless OS I have used or experienced to date or that is out there, but the PlayBook was not ready as we all found out after it was released, because of NO native SDK and not enough apps. They're making the transition now fluidly and if you don't know "who" is at the helm of this now, then you don't deserve to know the details because you haven't done your dd.

    It's funny, ironic and sad to me that investors who post here, and in general, have such a small, narrow and macro view of the big picture, treat the global smart phone and everything else emanating from that as a short term fix, or that a small window of time determines everything as to what is ahead. The extreme negativity surrounding RIM from both media and analysts, not to mention bloggers who likely don't even have any kind of respectable education, or much knowledge at all for that matter, is only being fed by managements current mistakes, learning curve and transitioning to a higher and more efficient global platform, and one that is truly "Blackberry".

    Earnings will return in huge numbers over the years ahead, as shorts and bashers scratch their heads, trying to find their inner truth and soul. I doubt many of them even have that.

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    • Good post Gold. This brings back alot of memories. I remember buying RIM the first time in the summer of 2001 and being a bit early on the call. When companies are in transition, it is always hard to find that right point to jump in. And no doubt the challengers this time are more formidable and the challenge itself tougher with the anti-RIM campaign in full swing. But they also now have better tools at their disposal with QNX, large subscriber base and strong balance sheet and a more seasoned management team. The short-term focus of the public markets always provide opportunities for those who can listen beyond the immediate noise.

      • 1 Reply to toinvestor21
      • Well said toinvestor... it's still extremely early in the game. It's an ever evolving process and the negative campaign against RIM has been going strong for a few years now. Ironically, management fell right into the trap of the negative perception that was created... but I know things have changed. They haven't been more focused or in tune with both their mistakes and mis-steps, which again, ironically, will only make them that much stronger going forward. It's ultimately a humbling and healthy process for long term growth that will be much greater than it would have otherwise been without some traumatic failure and self introspective analysis along the way. I'm more confident in RIM going forward now than I've ever been. I'm a long term investor though, and most here seem to be more interested in short term.

        The reason I posted that data was to show the big picture. The "forecast" for a slow down or to be killed by Apple, Microsoft, or whoever is counter intuitive to the reality of the smart phone industry and developing technology of RIM as a whole, as it's always been. People seem to forget RIM's roots and how they became what they did in the first place. Steve Jobs was always fascinated with the Blackberry, his artistry and vision took what RIM had and recreated it with iOS in a way that Mike may have taken for granted. May? He clearly did. They are getting back to their roots of innovation and with you know who now on board, maybe most don't know yet? The RIM we've seen the last few quarters is about to reverse itself in a major way over the next few quarters and beyond, "in my humble opinion" lol! :)

    • Wow Goldie, you sound like your good old self again from the gold rush days of yesteryears. Oh no, that was the gold plunge at the time. Shoulda listened to you. But now, ten years later, glad to see you are still around, made it on gold and yet sorry for your extensive RIM losses to date. I was worried about you there for a while, but you've still got it.

      So I owe you an apology, however, you should have listened to my words of wisdom to sell NFLX over 200, AAPL over 400, RIMM over 40 and again in the high 20's, and of course "GOLD" when I said, as it was near the top.

      Your timing stinks but your brain is clearly back. Welcome home Goldie.

    • Interesting how everyone says the iphone and Android is killing RIM but since these phones were released, RIM has had its strongest growth its ever had. Hmm. I guess there are more people in the world then people thought.

    • Buy out? As goldpermabull points out through numbers in her post, shouldn't the two CEO's be given a chance? Does BB7 surge in global popularity not say anything about their vision? My guess is they are at the tail end of this transition period and should be given a chance to grow this company as they have over the years. When they had a road bump in 2002/2003, what if some company came in then and took them off? 70 million subscribers later.

    • What Goldpermabull points out is that this has been more about a "stock slaughter" rather than the company, revenues or earnings themselves being slaughtered.

      The bashers and media have been trying to make us believe over the past few years that Apple and Androids gain was the death of RIM, yet RIM has seen their strongest growth since the release of the iPhone.

      The stock? Another story. The transition? Look at 2002/2003 time period. The future? Look at the big picture along with the current sell through data of OS7 phones.

    • finally! someone who "gets it" and makes an intelligent, well articulated point. It also shows the value that makes this a steal right now. Not only has aapl, ibm, csco and so forth gone through "cycles", so do financials and other industries (bac is a steal, gs is crazy low, so on and so forth; these guys are not going anywhere). Rimm does not an EK make.

    • <2011 - ??>

      Your chart does NOT tell the whole story.

      1. RIM uses GAAP bookkeeping which means each device sold only accounts for 1/8 (two years) of revenue. So after the iPhone started to gain traction (2009), RIM's numbers would be fairly consistent till 2011.

      2. RIM is a pager company trying to pretend they are a computer company. They have absolutely no place in they Post PC industry, since the smartphone industry is just like the short-lived PDA industry - a placeholder till the handhelds take over. And they have.

      3. The quarterly numbers are telling a different story. From their second quarter report issued earlier this month, the GAAP numbers are starting to collapse:

      The Company’s GAAP net income for the quarter was $329 million, or $0.63 per share diluted, compared with GAAP net income of $695 million, or $1.33 per share diluted, in the prior quarter and net income of $797 million, or $1.46 per share diluted, in the same quarter last year. Revenue for the second quarter of fiscal 2012 was $4.2 billion, down 15% from $4.9 billion in the previous quarter and down 10% from $4.6 billion in the same quarter of last year.

      So it is nearly impossible to sugar coat the fact that RIM is a horse in an automobile race. Their leaders were blind sighted by the advances that allow HD graphics and movies be shown on devices and that secure, text email is all that is needed for the next decade.

      RIM got lucky with the smartphone just as Palm got lucky with the PDA. Both companies failed to evolve their successes into anything. Apple, for example, took their MP3 player and turned it into a powerful internet communication device and then into a powerful media consumption device.

      What is RIM trying to do that will differentiate itself from anyone else? In tech, there are only leaders and followers. RIM was a leader then became a follower.

      Then comes the abyss.

      And remember: Numbers never lie. But torture them and they will confess to anything.

    • I wish I had the money to buy the RIMM stock. But I have no money. That is amazing growth in only 14 years!

    • Wow, talking about stock investing! RIMM had negative earning growth of 50% just last quarter. So how much p/e you are going to attach to a company with such a lousy shrinking rate? Stock investing is all about futures, not about the past. Got it? I am so surprise there are so many dreamers who are so attached to the stocks with so little hope. RIMM is done, history! No way out! It can't compete with apple and android phones. you guys are still living in your dream while stock is on it's way to single digits in next years or two. Face it!

      • 2 Replies to stockgangster
      • I think you are loco señor. The mexican people love the Blackberry, we love to type on the best keyboard in the world, other phones try to match it but it never feels like the Blackberry. The new Blackberry now releasing in Mexico is an art of sheer beauty, thin, sleek and my hermana's, oh, they just all is of what they talk about. I think in your investment community they are trying to destroy the stock because they want the Apple to win the race, but the Apple not stand a chance in Mexico. People may think we are dumb, pero estamos muy inteligente mucho más que la gente estúpida como ustedes se dan cuenta.

        Is this why the people of your country protest the wallstreet? Do they control and manipulate the stocks?

    • There are over 45 million active users on Blacberry's Facebook page and it's been growing by leaps and bounds over te last six months.

      http://www.facebook.com/apps/application.php?id=2254487659&sk=wall

      Downloads od Blackberry App world is increasing daily. One outage and Blackberry users go insane, can't love without their Blackberry's. I guess we know why Blackberry users are considered Crackberry's.

      But Bashers say this is a dying company. The facts say otherwise. I hope there's a big pullback from all the bashing. I want back in, but want to wait for a nice pullback. Will wait patiently for the right time.

      • 1 Reply to loscapucha
      • <There are over 45 million active users on Blacberry's Facebook page and it's been growing by leaps and bounds over te last six months.>

        There were 70 million Napsters users too when it was free. Oh, Facebook is free too.

        <Downloads od Blackberry App world is increasing daily. >

        This is RIM's weakest asset and you spin it off as a positive? Puhleeze!

        <But Bashers say this is a dying company. The facts say otherwise. >

        The facts say RIM is company pushing dying tech. No innovation. No ecosystem. No PC software experience. No developers. Nothing.

        RIM is a pager company that got lucky with one trick and milked it for a decade.

        The cow just dried up.

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