Something is highly suspicious to me when you go into a U.S. carrier and are swayed from wanting to buy a Blackberry, even though the Blackberry Bold 9900 and 9930 are hands down the best phone out there right now. I've done some testing on this while in the US and was shocked. The iPhone and Android phones are pushed hard, and the Blackberry's... well, you'd hardly know they exist. I was even given the perception that I don't want a Blackberry because they're going out of business. LOL!!! And millions of people believe this thanks to the mass brainwashing manipulation, even as RIM has continued to grow its subscriber base as they go through their current transition period. I've talked to people who have told me, "I'm not going to get a Blackberry, they are going out of business." I ask where they heard this, they say on television, at the store, by friends, the media... This has been the ulterior motive of the the mass bash campaign we've seen over the last four years, even as RIM was having record quarters and seeing sales surge. Then unfortunately, RIM fell into the trap by making some mis-steps (for one I never liked that they took the thumb wheel away) that was a unique Blackberry "feel" and specialty. Maybe they'll bring back a new modernized thumb version. Their first mistake was putting the roller ball and touchpad on the front, they should have kept it where the thumb roller was... fast forward to the Playbook being released before being ready, absolutely no advertising for their best Blackberry ever, the Bold 9900 and 9930) and delays. Now Lazaridi's is back on his game and staying true to his vision without following bad advice. Thus delays to get back on track..... BUT, all the while, Blackberry's are so powerful and sill number one around the world, they've continued to grow their subscribers 35% this last year, and this is before the new (or I should say original Blackberry stigma) is unveiled and released upon the world. And the growth will then especially accelerate. But who is MOST afraid of the impending WRATH that is now on the horizon and "who" has specifically been behind this at the core, aside from the obvious scumbag short selling hedge funds? Here's one theory.
Let's look out five years from now, as technology changes and transforms and current status and valuations and use a couple examples:
ATT - currently has around 95 million subscribers.
Their revenues are approximately 125 Billion per year.
They earn approximately 1.97 per share.
They have cash of appx. 10.8 Billion
They have debt of apps. 72 Billion - DEBT of 72 BILLION!
They have a market cap of 177 Billion.
Is it in their best interest to sell an Android phone, an iPhone or a Blackberry?
RIM - currently has around 75 million subscribers and growing rapidly INTERNATIONALLY (appx 5 to 8 million subscribers being added per quarter and accelerating)
Their revenues are approximately 20 Billion per year.
They earn appx 1 Billion per cash in service revenues alone (fluctuating short term, expanding tremendously long term)
They have appx 1.5 Billion cash
They have ZERO debt.
They have a market cap of appx 7 Billion.
What is the technology now? Where will it be in five years from now?
I'll let you draw your own conclusions. But I'll tell you this, RIM is still only its baby stages and knows exactly what he's doing.
And by the way, Jeff Bezos is an extremely intelligent man :)
This is making more and more sense each day. The U.S. phone carriers push Apple and Android products because Apple for example is a data hog as this article explains below. Many go over their data usage and will see what their phone bills really are. If U.S. phone carrier pushes Blackberry they make less money.
With company like ATT having over 170 Billion in debt (what other company on the planet has 170 Billion dollars in debt?) They are desperate to increase costs for data usage with penalties for over usage which if all the hype of iPhone is true and people use so much they probably go over their limit within a day or two. Each day over usage equal higher phone bill. I got email from friend in U.S. who nearly had heart attack when seeing phone bill from iPhone. Now he has to upgrade to higher paying plan.
This is why smart rich people in U.S. use Blackberry. iPhone will make people poor with too much usage and rich people save money not spend foolishly. iPhone data hog is foolish. It is likely this last earnings report will be the highest iPhone sales you will ever see and decline severely from here. Just watch over the next several quarters you will see the declining trend in iPhone sales decline rapidly.
As I keep saying if my strong belief that Amazon will be buying RIM this year, you will see how drastically the game has changed. As I've done more extensive study, the numbers break down to a fair buy out price for RIM of 70 dollars a share minimum, so buyout not likely until later this year in my opinion. RIM future price without buyout will be much higher. RIM can start own company if wanted to eventually. Do the comparisons. RIM not like any other hardware maker out there, completely different business model. American media who bash RIM and make false comparisons, why so stupid?
My value is around 140 discounted at 2.5% based on 3eps. At these prices the margin of safety is around 10%. The market really bets that rimm is going to totally fail which i dont see happening. There is alot of advertising going on now rhan ever before. That can only lead to increased sales. Also the barrier entries to become a rimm are too high so i can see a buyout happening at the level you suggested. It makes sense f or a leveragedvbuyer but not for rimm as the true value is much more than 50 looking forward.
Great post and a lot of persuasive arguments in RIMM's favor. I agree. The US consumer may be enamored by the iPhone but for the rest of the world 1) they are too expensive, 2) the pay plans that accompany them are extremely overpriced, and 3) most countries lack the expensive infrastructure to make them viable in their markets.
RIMM is a clear winner. Cheers.
This was the post I was referring to in my last post. People do not understand the difference between the business model of Apple, Nokia and other hardware makers to that of RIM's business model.
I firmly believe now more than ever that Amazon will need to act quick to buy RIM. For now the Blackberry brand name has been trashed and thrashed by the forces at be. However, Amazon will change Blackberry perception in quite the heartbeat.
I also strongly strongly believe that RIM should hire Leslie Kilgore who just stepped down from Netflix. There is a reason she stepped down from Netfilx but we don't know why yet. It is of great irony that she got her start at Amazon and if Amazon were to buy RIM she would be back home at Amazon and know how to bring the Blackberry brand name back. RIM is now like a new company, but the Blackberry brand around the world is strong and its subscribers keep growing. The emails and phone calls are not reliable on the iPhone as they are not a true communications company. They can sell all the devices they want but Apple is the present and Blackberry is the future, while it continues to grow strong at its own pace even with all the Apple bashers and media bashers etc. They have tried with everything to kill and destroy RIM and are still trying.
This is one of the few intelligent posts here that should give analysts a slight clue at least.
Unfortunately, it appears Apple's products might have dumbed down people to the point of complete retardation that appears to be growing worse. I've not yet heard one analyst explain RIM's business model but rather they compare RIM to a one dimensional business model such as a hardware maker like Nokia or the infamous Palm that RIM assassins love to compare RIM to. They appear to have a crystal ball about the future with the same insight and knowledge of your local psychic. It is quite fascinating to watch.
"IF" a company like Amazon bought RIM, they would be attaining a company deep into core central nervous system of a mass global population which would expand Amazon's reach far beyond what Apple will be able to achieve in five years from now. The ignorance of the bashers comparing one business model to another here is astonishing. We all know the setbacks RIM "had" in the past. That was the time to short RIM.
RIM shorts are not keeping up with the times and too busy comparing an 8 year old to a 30 year old and boasting about it. Shows how disoriented the shorts are now. No offense, but most people I know who own an iPhone or iPad compared to a Blackberry... well, let's just say I see a major difference in character, intelligence and success. The most successful business people and celebrities use Blackberry's for a reason. Some do have "two devices", for example when they want to be unproductive and just search for apps, play games and such important things as efficient email, reliable phone calls and effective communication or being productive isn't of concern for them at moments of time. Otherwise, I've seen Blackberry gain traction recently more then ever. You don't see it now on tv or articles, but you will.
Of course the phone carriers love pushing iPhones and Androids over Blackberries. Recent articles for example point out how iPhones are data hogs. Aatat has hundreds of billions of dollars in debt and need all the money they can get. recent articles have explained how AT&T and Verison will make more money off these data hogs, even if they are battery worthless and you need to carry a charger wherever you go, even if there are hundreds of thousands of complaints the iPhones can't actually make phone calls.
Why would the carriers care about selling the BEST phone? I.e. the Blackberry 7's? They're going to sell the phones that make them the most money..
However, just wait until these iPhone data hoggers get their bills (unless theyre with Sprint... For now, until Sprint takes away unlimited data usage.). The iPhone will disappear quite zuicly in my opinion.
This post makes more sense to me every day.. iPhone is a data hog amd they are inmeicient for calls and efficient communication. Hundreds of thousands are complaining about iPhone on tech and support boards while media pumps iPhone and bashes Blackberry, yet they all secretly use Blackberry, if they are smart.
iPhone and Android make phone companies much more money because of extensive data usage as kids play with their iPhones, while destroying clear and efficient communication.
It is very very disturbing. In India we are very very smart and only use the best technologies while avoiding false hype.
RIM subscribers growing 5 to 8 million per quarter, will soon surpass AT&T subscribers and Verizon subscribers. RIM has their own servers and last report building more with SWAT teams on site now for all servers. Wireless technologies changing and soon RIM will have all the power. That's why competitors are so scared. They know the truth and trying very very hard to distort it and brainwash masses. Now Steve Jobs can't save Apple with distortion field. Facts are facts and hundreds of thousand of complaints and suffering by iPhone users don't lie, but RIM Bashers will never admit all the problems with iPhone.
dreams dreams dreams..
if you want to understand what's going on, just "follow the money"
telcos sell iphones because iphones have applications
so they are guaranteed to make lots of money from subscription fees (data plans, etc)
rim on the other side - with just mail and messaging.. nothing to drive revenue
that's one simple reason why they are not and WILL NOT sell bbry-s in telco stores
i have personally checked that at a att store and if you compare the rim offer with everything else doesn't even come close
so you are right, it is a plot, telcos DON'T WANT to sell the bbrys - but for good reasons - it is not profitable !
and that will NOT change becuse bbrys don't have useful apps
even when qnx comes over the android apps will run non-native..
why would somebody want to do that ??
no way !
stop dreaming, sell the rimm shares you have left and be prepared in a couple of quarters when rim will be 4-5, that's the right time to get in, hopefully somebody will snap them at that price
any dreams at higher prince than 5 will be very expansive
mark this message and check it out in the summer - see if i know what i'm talking about or not...
good luck everybody
You are no more of a bb fan than I am. But you are a real basher who loves to post long messages. So I can't give you anyhope becuase if I did you would turn it upside down. Good Luck!
I was recnly US for 2 weeks and chekced out few phone stores just to find out about BB as share holder, canadian and BB user. Most stored did not carry BB or cared to sell it. I guess this is wheere RIM is failing and they need to something that will push RIM products to consumers equally as they do with samsunga n apple and let consumers decide.
In Mexico I am lately seeing more and more Blackberry users.
Over the holidays my friend came down and visited. He brought down an iPhone 4S from U.S. and los battery was a joke! He couldn't believe how long the Blackberry battery lasted compared to the iPhone. He had never used a Blackberry and when he used mine he couldn't put it down.
He had to carry a charger with him everywhere we went, restaurant, car charger, while my battery lasted all day and all night long.
Looks like Ms. Ohnosoup is on to something. Now her post especially makes sense.
Shorts will start to accumulate due to buyout exposure alone. Technicals also indicate a bullish pattern forming and thus I am accumulating at these levels...Nokia in same boat...This is a AAPL long until the funds want to go short and then they will pull the trigger on the RIM's of this sector and go long....that;s wehen it's back into the mid 20's if it;s not taken over buy then....
Great play with the big boys but you must be on the right side of the trade!