I have been reading many post on this board, largely based on fluff and lack of facts.
So here's a friendly post with some facts about RIMM:
- The Company has over 75M+ users that pay a recurring fee every month. This grew to over $1 Billion to the Company, in the last quarter alone. Oh, and by the way the margin on those revenues are over 85%.
- The company has over $1.5 Billion in cash, NO DEBT. That's $3 per share in cash.
- RIMM's patents alone are worth close $10 per share (in case you haven't noticed take a look at how much Google just paid for basic Motorola patents with far less depth)
- The rest of the RIMM is still a REAL business. Last Q4 the company made over $1 billion in cash flow from operations - YES, in just 3 months - that's REAL cash generate by this money machine.
Ask Warren Buffett what he looks for when investing - it's machines that make money - REAL Cash.
- RIMM's sales grew from a hundred million in 2002 to almost $20 billion in 2011, and is very profitable. Yet it's market cap is just over $7 billion today and that's including the $1.5 billion of cash.
- Now the growth of the Smartphone market is still in its infancy, the US is a drop in the bucket. Only 330 million or so people live here, but the world has nearly 7 Billion. Market share does not matter, at this point. It's all about adding users - people focus on this because they don't know what they're talking about (it's like saying everyone is going to drive a Mercedes and BMW, Porsche, and Bentley are no good and are going out of business). RIMM has more than 75 million users and is making lots of cash. What's going to happen when they have 150 million users or 250 million users (Remember multiple billions of people will own Smartphones)?
- RIMM will make much more $$$.
- Based on its current business, RIMM is worth in a worst case scenario $25 per share and some would say $35.
If the stock stay here - at $14.57
This money making machine will get acquired.
Ask Buffett... or maybe IBM
Feel free to reply with intelligent questions and I would be happy to respond.
I don't think Seeking Alpha is getting paid by Apple.
I think that Seeking Alpha is full of a bunch of self proclaimed Communication Technology experts who are going to lose their shirt and pants shorting RIMM.
I think that a lot of them are in over their head and would be bankrupt if RIMM gets bought out anywhere above $25 a share.
Whether or not these douchers work for hedge funds or banks or whatever is yet to be seen. But I can assure you that there have been bets made against RIMM that have the potential to bankrupt hedge funds if they turn it around let alone get bought out.
It's NOT true! SeekingAlpha and most of the other media is not getting paid by Apple to drive RIMM share price down.
Look here, I found ONE article that was allowed to be posted on SeekingAlpha that is not bashing RIMM. Unlike the slew of other articles on there (often by the same person) written to drive the author's own short position in RIMM (for example - look at this "expert" posting his "analysis" every few days -
- is that legal?)
In any case, here's the ONE article that I could find that simply uses some facts -
- Nice work Tony B. It takes guts to go against the grain and say the truth in the face of all these lies in the media about RIMM
Please post and let the rest of this board know if anyone can find another "non-bashing" article anywhere out there.
I doubt it...
A lot of big companies are already starting to switch to iPhone and Android, i.e US Governments agencies, GM, Ford, etc.
RIMM can hold this range so long is its momentum and need a little bit of longer to reach the point for BK.
RIMM is another Palm One 10 years ago.
One hot handset the company is at 50 again.You are right RIMM is not seen
As a WSP but it has a cash stream no other handset provider has.That is why the new mngmnt is taking its time to get a no fault superphone out...it has the time like no other handset provider.Money comes in with no new sales.Palm never had that. Apple and Android have paid apps and media and RIM is moving there too.....Wait till th e first companies go out of business because their data or customer list is sold by an android app..it is happening now though no one seems to be aware of what value wireless security is YET.At least in parts of the world they take it for granted...even though the apps say they own your info.
being pessimistic on this name for some time, I can candidly tell you i have a nice run....However, still being short at these levels is tough and the one thing that keeps me up at night would be an acquisition. However, despite the rumors, i don't see it happening for these reasons: 1) Recent Insider trading (technically, they could get hammered really bad if they were to get a deal done shortly after their purchase 2) Next qtrly earnings will be horrific, if you are a buyer, why buy today when you can get 25% discount by mid-year 3) The board, seems adamant and protective about their company, growing it organically and not handing it over to "Morons" as they put it...This haughtiness can prove to be foolish. If they sale, that's it, most of the management here are done, no way they hand over control to an "outsider" or another firm. Most are in their 50's, not time for them to cash out. And given they built this from the ground-up and there is a lot of pride here, i just don't see them handing this over to a MSFT, AMZN or whatever flavor of the day makes the rumor mill....Just my honest opinion...
Finally, a thread with genuine intelligence on both sides of the argument.
I'd be pessimistic - VERY MUCH SO - if I believed the "party line" that they want to stay independent and turn things around a la Apple of 10 years ago.
I do NOT believe that ... for a second. I believe that THAT is the closest we'll see to "manipulation" (except for takeover rumors) in RIM, because I think that Barbara and a couple of other Board members REALLY ARE smart enough to know that all of the things that the nay-sayers say really have the ring of truth about them.
That is, Jim and Mike and the Board Member whose "words of wisdom" a few days back brought the ridicule they deserve REALLY took their eye off the ball bigtime over the past couple of years, ... and the "franchise" didn't just lose 75% of its market value - it lost 75% (give or take) of its "tangible" value!
But everybody knows that the most tradable big asset there is (besides oil, maybe) - real estate - uses "comparables" for valuation purposes. It's not perfect - OF COURSE - but it's the best there is. Fortunately, Motorola and several others are "comparable enough" so that I'm ever so comfortable with $25, even at this dark hour where it looks awfully bleak for RIM.
Of course, Motorola was bought (so Google says) largely for its intellectual property, and RIM may not be as well-endowed in that category as some believe.... But the o.p. is right - 70 million "customers" (give or take) *IS* a big number, ... and the market is SO huge and rapidly growing that one can argue (plausibly) that a rising tide lifts all boats, even ones that are barely seaworthy.
Don't forget, it's not like RIM is selling their PHONES at a loss (alas, PB is another matter entirely) - yes, they'd love the margins of yesteryear, but I come back to my FIRM belief that they are en route to letting Amazon or Microsoft of ?? make the tough decisions about what niche(s) are worth contesting and the 5-10 other crucial decisions. Heaven knows that the new guy inherited a very bad hand ... and I think he played it poorly ... IF the goal was to turn things around "internally."
But once you come to think of him as the caretaker (placeholder) that I think he MUST BE, there's probably small print in his employment agreement that'll enrich him by a few million WHEN there's a "control change."
I know there's an element of wishful thinking in my "analysis," but I don't think 2012 will end with RIMM trading anywhere in its present form. (Maybe, there will be jingoistic Canadian stuff that results in what looks like a division or 2 being acquired by someone like AMZN, but it will essentially be the stuff that a GOOD COMPANY could do more with than RIM mgt, old or new.) I know Prem has his fans, but with Einhorn joining him, we have what we usually have when there's "blood in the water" - sharks circling. P.S. - the sharks usually don't go to sleep hungry!
the post is self-delusional to say the least.
the same numbers could have been thrown when the stock was $70/share
and the nrs would have looked even better..
but guess what - it still went down from 70 to 15..
i wander why..
with such stellar pedigree, amazing leadership, great patent portfolio and shiny future how comes the market discounts rimm so bad???
does the market know something you don't ??
i am sure you don't think so.. but the other few million investors have voted already
and rimm is off the island
it's a "dog eats dog" out there my friend.. and at this point rim is a chihuahua fighting agains t-rexes - to get an idea of the real scale of the problem :))
Thank you for keeping the discussion on topic and relax on the personal attacks.
Last time I checked, stocks go up and stocks go down.
I remember buying Apple in May 2004 at a similar share price - $14 something. Earlier the previous year, in Jan 2003, the stock hit $7.07 and people wrote the Company off. But guess what, the stock still traded. And it went up and down after that.
So when you talk about dinosaurs, etc. - It's almost like you're making some big assumptions.
Maybe you know something the other 7 billion people om the planet don't know.
Or maybe you've created a company from scratch to $20 billion in sales and billions of dollars in the bank and no debt and soon to be 100 million users.
Best of luck.
<- The Company has over 75M+ users that pay a recurring fee every month. This grew to over $1 Billion to the Company, in the last quarter alone. >
Contracts are expiring as companies are no longer interested in paying extortion to RIM.
<- RIMM's patents alone are worth close $10 per share (in case you haven't noticed take a look at how much Google just paid for basic Motorola patents with far less depth) >
Pager and push email patents are worthless today.
<- The company has over $1.5 Billion in cash, NO DEBT. That's $3 per share in cash.>
The company is burning through cash faster than a forest fire.
<- The rest of the RIMM is still a REAL business. Last Q4 the company made over $1 billion in cash flow from operations - YES, in just 3 months - that's REAL cash generate by this money machine.>
RIM still uses GAAP accounting which means sales made two years ago are still being recorded today.
<- RIMM's sales grew from a hundred million in 2002 to almost $20 billion in 2011, and is very profitable. Yet it's market cap is just over $7 billion today and that's including the $1.5 billion of cash.>
RIM's product line is in a shambles. It is five years behind the competition. It's all about future sales, not past performance.
<- Now the growth of the Smartphone market is still in its infancy, the US is a drop in the bucket. >
The smartphone market will evolve into the handheld computer market, which RIM has absolutely no experience, no ecosystem and no high end software,.
<Only 330 million or so people live here, but the world has nearly 7 Billion. Market share does not matter, at this point. >
Too bad no one is interested in buying a dead end product called a BlackBerry. Except poor third world countries and trailer parkers looking for a $199 iPad.
< people focus on this because they don't know what they're talking about (it's like saying everyone is going to drive a Mercedes and BMW, Porsche, and Bentley are no good and are going out of business). >
Steve Jobs: "Apple's market share is bigger than BMW's or Mercedes's or Porsche's in the automotive market. What's wrong with being BMW or Mercedes?"
BMW or Mercedes never gave fire sales to move products. Neither did Apple.
<RIMM will make much more $$$.>
Not after iPad 3 and iPhone 6 are released, which both will be released before the first BB 10 phone comes off the line.
<Based on its current business, RIMM is worth in a worst case scenario $25 per share and some would say $35.>
Not after they release their next two earnings reports. 20% drops each. Minimum.
<If the stock stay here - at $14.57
This money making machine will get acquired. >
The biggest word in the English language: IF
I think you missed the point. Relax. Breath...
EVERYONE IN THE WORLD IS NOT GOING TO OWN AN iPhone.
I like Apple's iPhone but I prefer to use my BlackBerry.
I think there's going to be some of the 7 Billion people in the world using BlackBerry Smartphones - they have a great portfolio of Smartphones, not just one phone. So lots of people will have choices of which BlackBerry they'd like to use.
I like Mercedes vehicles, but I still prefer driving my Ferrari.
Does that mean nobody is going to buy Mercedes. NO.
Does that mean Ferrari is going out of business. NO.
Different people have different preferences.
And the Smartphone market is big enough for more than ONE player.
REMEMBER, this is not about who has the better technology.
It's about will the Company make money and is the Company worth what the Stock Market says it's worth.
I think it's worth more than its current $7 billion market cap.