Yes, it is that time again. With a little over 2 weeks before the quarter ends, the data is becoming fairly clear that RIM had a disastrous Christmas quarter. Inventory in the channel remained stagnant from excessive channel stuffing last quarter. iPhone 4S which is out shipping blackberry by a factor of nearly 3 to 1 expanded in its reach into numerous third world countries where RIM has been relying upon for revenue.
All indications shows that even with the unusual extra week this quarter the numbers look horrendous. The extra week (99 days vs typical 92 days in a normal quarter) this quarter inflated the numbers by approximately 8%, nonetheless there is a high probability that RIM will have to announce another earnings warning around late Feb early March timeframe.
The awful calendar Q4 probably contributed to the co-CEO's decision to finally step aside. After all, they just can't take another round of bashing during conference call anymore.
I just saw this at Reuters.com
Shares of Research In Motion dropped nearly 5 percent on Thursday after an influential analyst said RIM would likely warn that it came up short on BlackBerry shipments this quarter and offer an even bleaker outlook for its flagship smartphone.
The latest version of the smartphone - using the legacy BlackBerry 7 operating system that RIM will replace later this year - has failed to impress demanding U.S. consumers, Jefferies analyst Peter Misek wrote in a note to clients.
Tepid shipments are likely to translate into weaker-than-expected results for the company's fourth quarter ending March 3, he said. That could lead RIM to tip its hand before the formal release of its results on March 29.
Perhaps just as worrying, Misek said, consumer acceptance for RIM's smartphones is starting to erode in Latin America and Europe, where sales of cheaper devices have provided a cushion for the Canadian company as it falls behind the pace in the United States.
"There is a greater than 50 percent chance that RIM will negatively pre-announce the February quarter," said Misek, who is rated five stars by Thomson Reuters StarMine for the accuracy of his earnings estimates on RIM.
I would agree with what you said. I think they will miss big time. However RIM doesn't usually warn until after the quarter is over but before the scheduled release date. So I think if they are going to warn it won't be until second week of March.
If the stock tanks further and the price movement suggest there might be leaks about the bad quarter, then RIM may be forced to come clean sooner and announce the warning before their intended date.
They wrote off the Playbook last quarter so those they same Playbooks they sold way BELOW cost This quarter are profitable?
On what Planet?
In what Universe?
Oh, the Planet Waterloo in the Universe Rimmtard.
In that case the way for Rimm to once again dominate mobile is simple!
Massive mobile device write-offs in the quarter before having a fire sale on those SAME mobile devices in the NEXT quarter!
Clever, who by Rimmtards would have seen that way out of Rimm's downward spiral?
Dream on shortie, and be sure to add to your short position on any upticks, downtick.
Whatever. I'm loving all this BS, including the Morgan Stanley completely wrong (or made up info?
The more shorts that load up on all this very BS, the better.
Come on Joel, tguns, stonecold, tfckugrogroy, and all your other aliases... please, suck in as many shorts as your can!
Oh, and do it NOW!!! Post hard today, okay? Today is the day!!!! Work hard, spend all those countless hours you always do at your computer today and MAKE THEM COUNT!!!
Great post, have you noticed that when Joeclewless fails to post, before he's off to park cars, that the whole crew of aliases miss posting too?
Funny how that works, the entire bunch of them are at the boiler-room meeting where they are getting reamed out by
AAPL executives for not bashing RIMM enough!!
$0.83/share is the Average estimate.
That's roughly $428 Million Dollars.
Service revenue should be around $1.1+ Billion for the quarter. That's before they sell any phones.
If they sell 9 Million units and say they sold 2 Million Playbooks (perhaps a high estimate) I think we could see earnings blow $0.83 out of the water.
They already took a write down on the Playbook last quarter, and that was for future sales, and inventory that was over-stocked. My guess is they made all that money back.
I am saying my estimate is $1.10 for the quarter.
But hey... if it's only $0.70 that still isn't bankruptcy now is it?
If they make $0.70 per share this quarter they are still going to make $350 Million in a quarter.
This company is way under valued.
I am LONG LONG LONG LONG LONG
"If they sell 9 Million units and say they sold 2 Million Playbooks (perhaps a high estimate) I think we could see earnings blow $0.83 out of the water."
Your numbers are way off. Playbook unit shipment had been 500k, 200k, 150k during the last 3 quarters. Now you expect them to ship 2 million?? The playbook numbers won't contribute much to net income anyway.. they are being liquidated at below cost!
As for unit shipment for phones, management previously said they expect to ship about 11 million blackberry phones this quarter. If they do that then they will make the consensus, but that is assuming you exclude any one time charge.
I don't think the actual demand (sell through) for the quarter is close to 11 million. RIM can ship that many to make the numbers but then it will stuff the channel beyond belief and they will have to revise next quarter way down.
So they either take a hit this quarter or face reality next quarter.
I have a very accurate spreadsheet with all the calculations including detailed historical figures going back 2 years. Base on this spreadsheet, if phone shipment is 10 million instead of 11 million then EPS will be around $0.61 excluding any charges. Remember, EPS from a year ago was $1.78.
GAAP earnings would be even lower if there are any major restructuring charge. You can bet that there will be a charge this quarter because the new CEO will want to clean house and write everything off so that he gets to look better in the future.