Brownian motion? Boy, are you in the wrong zipcode!
Plus, I hope you're not one of those well-educated-re-science types who thinks the market should be easy pickings.
First, nobody knows what liquidation value is here, and tech companies really NEVER relate to that in a meaningful, sustainable way. BECAUSE they will be acquired at huge premiums if things are going well and are "untouchables" if they have the RIMM thing even half as down pat as RIMM does.
Typical day for RIMM ... since the iPhone was launched - tech-eons ago - sued by Nokia re patents, admits to behavior that properly makes Canadian hockey-nuts even more ludicrous than soccer hooligans, multiple informed judgments that they're bringing too little too late to the fray, etc.
I opined yesterday that any trades over $13 represented a kind of charity being doled out to holders smart enough to cash in their chips. Turns out that I was right.
More importantly, I said yesterday that the oh so slim hope left for RIMM lay in MSFT "doubling down" on smartphones.
Let me take that ray of hope all but back. This is a classic "broken company." One analyst put it well when he said that RIMM was now competing with software when that has never been a core strength of the company. (I.e., in the battle for the #3 position, MSFT is a prohibitive favor to beat them out, ... and this is not a $300 million situation as was the case with Nook a day or 2 back. That is, 4 or 5 billion is NOT "pocket change" even to Microsoft, ... and buying an empty box is not something you should imagine is possible for a company that big and smart.
Ditto, Amazon, so today's sellers are probably oh so smart, because there really is no solid flooring above $10.
Not saying it will get there - certainly not necessarily in a hurry - but that's only because a gazillion short shares may get tired of waiting for TRUE cratering.
OTOH, if you think that the 5 or 6 "smart guys" that even 2012 chatter said had taken positions in RIMM still hold them, you're out of your mind. And when a big guy reaches the conclusion that I have - that this guy may NEVER turn the corner - their for-sale positions may swamp the rapidly declining new-and-additional-short-shares category, taking the stock down a point or 2 or 3.
Remember, RIMM cannot beat Samsung, HTC and the others REALLY in places like Indonesia and India. It looks like RIMM has found new life "down there," but they're really just taking the dumb money that folks in North America have to steer their way until they can fire RIMM and buying customers by offering cut-rate phones and service.
Yes, it looks good enough to have kept the stock above $10, but it is a total loser of a "business model," and it's like a plane that will stall out, since anybody with a smartphone almost HAS to be literate, and it won't be long before those newish RIMM customers start reading about impending "reorganizations," ones which will turn their phones into orphans and orphans-in-all-but-name almost overnight.
Longs and some imbecilic daytraders (who think they can time the dead cat bounces) posting here will continue to chatter like cuckoos. Just laugh at some of that chatter and try to ignore as much as possible of the rest.