Hey crampton. Nice new ID. I like it.
If I understand your post correctly. You are calling out bears because they can't produce proof that RIM cant make a comeback that duplicates Apple's turnaround from 2007 without looking at RIM's past record. Well, yeah.
You are right. RIM's track record of ineptness is all we have to go on at this point. But there are several key indicators that are flashing warning signs that this is proceeding just like the playbook. Here are a couple.
1. RIM has now spent a good 1.5 years announcing, demonstrating and leaking this phone on multiple occasions. This phone is using the same operating system as the playbook which has been out for 19 months. Companies that have a truly revolutionary product get it to market instead of hyping relentlessly and delaying launch. (Palm did this too)
2. RIM can't articulate what it is that makes this phone so revolutionary even though they claim it is.
3. They announce that we haven't seen the "finished product" but are so desperate to show that product to anyone that will promise not to give it a negative review. (independent tech analysts)
4. RIM has now proceeded to release weekly press releases trumpeting things like carrier testing that no other manufacturer bothers with. They just release the phone to market.
5. It appears that the device is ready for launch, yet they purposely chose to avoid head to head competition and comparisons with the leader and sacrificed holiday sales to do so.
RIMM goes up to $13 is extremely conservative view. Due to the great potentiial with new BB10 release, millions loyal customers, and ciost cut, etc,, RIM will do much better next year and so does RIMM share price. We can expect RIMM to $25-$45 next year. Short will have hard time to cover if long hold shares tight.
You are right. Amazing that anyone would even imagine that Rimm would dare sell 25 to 30 million phones next year and earn money again! The nerve of these guys taking a page out of Jobs/Apple's playbook circa 2007 and turning their company around . It's easy to point out the weak sakes of Playbook and their older long at the tooth phones. But you can't predict the next 5 qtrs and the rebound that's about to happen. And you know it. Unlike you Heretic I did on an earlier post. I challenged you to do the same. Unless I missed another of YOUR profound narratives my 2 to 1 odds are standing up that you won't bother. Just more insane overly bearish negative PR one-lining it's way from your port in the storm. Rear view mirror experts like you are a dime a dozen and transparent.