There are 80 million loyal Blackberry users, all holding outdated Bolds etc., and chomping at the bit fo something new and exciting.
Assuming that 99% of those who stay with RIM will upgrade in the next 3 yrs, and that more than one third of that will occur in the first 12 months. That's min. 25M handsets, just to satisfy dmand from current users.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I currently have an android and can't wait for BB10 qwerty.
I can see many android users who like BB converting. Android users don't really have that kind of loyalty to Android as iSheep have to their iCraps.
December 19, 2012 at 7:43 pm
There is a reported 70% of current BlackBerry subscribers who plan to make the switch to BlackBerry 10. If true, that could mean a near instantaneous subscriber base of nearly 60 million to BlackBerry 10.
Even a mere 50% switch over rate would be some pretty impressive numbers. What could this mean for game and app publishers? EA and Gameloft have been fairly good about porting their games to the current PlayBook OS. From what we’ve heard they’ve seen a fairly good purchase rate simply from PlayBook owners.
However, companies like Zynga, Glu Mobile, and others haven’t even given BlackBerry a chance. As shown in figures found by Seeking Alpha, Zynga’s business model is on the decline.
BlackBerry users haven’t had access to games like Words with Friends, Draw Something, and more. BlackBerry 10 opens the doorway for all of these games to be easily ported to the BB10 platform.
Imagine what instant access to 40+ million users could mean for a company selling an app at $0.99 or more. There is some serious revenue possibilities with BlackBerry 10. Lets hope these companies wise up and see the available dollar signs.
If that were true:
1. Where would they parts for 60m BBW 10s?
2. Where would they manufacture 60 m BBW 10s? Manufacture is locked up by Apple & Android.
3. How many months between order and shipment? 5-6 months.
4. Who is actually making apps for BBW 10?
Those that wanted something new and exciting left BB for Android and iOS. Those that stayed are either in 3rd world countries where BB handsets were cheap or loyal users to BB in US and Europe who didn't need a modern smartphone.
Those in 3rd would countries will by and large not upgrade to BB 10, they don't have the money.
My belief the number could be as low as 10% of users upgrading and as high as 20% if BB does an effective campaign to advertise.
What about those returning...I myself left BB for iphone 4 back in September 2010. I now have 4s and will be going back to BB for Z10. I left because I needed an all touch with a great browser...I believe (and have heard from direct sources) that BB10 will have best browser on market...OS is better than iOS and Android.
iphone is boring now to me and Samsungs are junk in my opinion (my mom, sisters and sister-in-laws all have them and I see first hand that they are junk)
BB10 will surprise a lot of people and the timing is actually perfect...BB will regain market share in the US, UK (Euro) and Canada...watch and see
Shorts be warned and best of luck to all in the New Year
Sentiment: Strong Buy