I like to have fun on this board and ridicule the bashers, who for me, just provide harmless entertainment. They influence no one.
In all seriousness, I have a six figure stake in BBRY. I no not" trade", I invest and I leave my money in place. I continue to hold shares of stock from over 25 years ago. My overall return is just under 20% which I consider very good, and it is higher than my real estate holdings which are about 15% ROI.
My point is that I have no doubt that Blackberry will re-take the mobile computing field and will surpass their historic high about two years. In other words, I expect them to recover in half the time it took them to drop to their historic low.
When I invest, its after a relatively quick analysis of a few key items: Little or no debt, cash flow, potential for return on equity and proprietary product or technology (brand). This takes all of about five minutes. Once a company makes it through this filter, I study the CEO and top management. RIM failed this test two years ago. Assessing the management is the most difficult part of my research. It involves, at the end of the day, a qualitative judgment of his character and honesty coupled with an assessment of his competency, which in the best case, can be gleaned from his past performance (an good example is Steve Steinor of Huntington Bank).
Once I make a go decision, I am all in. I never doubt my decision. I never look back. This is what allows me to ride out the lows without giving it a second thought.
I know that a few of you understand what I do. I can't speak for anyone else, but it has worked very well for me with only one dog company in over 25 years that I sold at a little over my basis after a few years. Other than that, its a boring way to invest but its damn near foolproof and its put me in a position to be financially independent since my 30's.
Will I continue to bash the bashers on this message board. Maybe. Will I write another lengthy and serious post like this. Doubtful. I don't share my personal stuff often. Good luck to all the real longs. You guys are the ones who will profit very nicely a few years from now. Most of all, don't worry about it. You already won on this one.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I think BBRY could go either way. I expect it will outlast Nokia for various reasons (which I am short - disclosure) and end up a distant 3'rd. I think it is currently overbought but will continue to have spurts off initial selling news from BB diehards , and then settle down due to lack of new customer penetration over time and release delays in US. As to the market in general, your observations are right on but let's all be honest and say it is fueled and sustained by Fed $$ and just the latest bubble that the US has to have to stay slightly above permanent recession. Like all bubbles it will eventually burst and those who see the end coming will do well, the rest will get financially snuffed. Without Fed lagresse the market would be half what it is. All ponzi schemes come to an end. The only difference with the Fed is they can force new victims into the trap via debt we all have to pay off someday.
You would do well to examine RIM's recent earnings reports as well as their business model and how they have stayed viable while having the market that they owned obliterated by competitors these past three years.
Blackberry's business model is changing to hardware sales as their monthly revenue from their secure sever fee scam is going away. There are only two companies that are making decent profits through primarily hardware sales. Both have things going on that are enabling them to do this while others are failing. I will leave it up to you to figure out if RIM has the recipe needed to make it as a hardware only company. RIM longs have spent tireless hours trying to convince that Apple will be squeezed by low cost phones but somehow believe that the beloved BB10 will be immune to such pressure.
Wow, Lots of comments on this link and like minded investors to myself.
I used to watch Louis Rukeyser on Wall Street Week when that show was on years ago. I did trade a bit in the short term and made money but as Uncle Lou would say, the real money is holding long term. That is also how Warren Buffet invests. You have to be willing to take deep dips in the short term.
I also get a kick on the sentimental drib drab on this board but I do not base my decisions on it. However every now and then there is a jem of information.
I also do not cry over spilt milk. A real capitalist objectively looks to take advantage of a situation rather than let emotion play into things. Do the opposite of what your gut says. That has happened just recently several times with BB. Both times when there were sudden drops in share price to the $12 level I bought more while my friends said that I was crazy. Fear has no place in the markets as the market is a volatile place. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. High risk, high reward, Buy low, sell high.
I too will continue to bash the bashers for the fun of it. Who said that investing should be boring. Actually I have created several market monsters along the way.
Live Long and Prosper
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Excellent post, heitmann.
I often wonder what possesses some people to spend entire days, weekends and evenings on their stock portfolios. Until the recession hit, I spent an hour or two a month. I can't help but speculate that we are so conditioned to working hourly, and putting in long hours that we often are blind to ways that allow us to make more money by not doing anything at all. Buy and hold, for example. I used to never read the stock prices until I got my monthly statement in the mail.
I once read that Warren Buffet has only worked, on average, about two hours a day for decades. Mostly reading annual reports. He told a reporter that he got good at playing bridge because he needed something to do at the office. He pointed to his desktop computer and told the woman that was all he knew how to do on it, and wasn't I retested in following the stock market on a daily, or even weekly basis. I thought this was an interesting insight to a guy who only thinks long term and in dollar amounts with lots if zeros at the end.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
thanks for your thoughtful insight. I too am long though am still a bit reluctant to go all in....My biggest concern is the overall US market, debt issues and potential for massive correction.
I too believe that BBRY has the product, the management, and the brand...all a matter of execution. Furthermore the QNX OS has huge potential, making BBRY both a hardware and a software play.
Any thoughts on QNX?
I don't have anything to offer regarding QNX. I am not much of a technical guy. I understand it is a very good engine under the hood and if this helps make the BB10 run faster, more secure and keeps the interface simple, it must be a good thing.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
20% in 25 years...That is great for you. But I don't have that kind of patience and I think most of the people here aren't into that kind of time frame. I want 100% gain in a month or two and that is the kind of trading most folks here are going after, imo. You're preaching this in the wrong forum. But good investing to you!
I definitely hope that your assumptions and predictions are correct As I have money at stake which I can't lose unlike yourself. Can I ask you to explain what makes you believe that the company can get back to where it was 23 years ago when the stock price was over $100. Can you also tell us how many units the company has to sell to get to that level.
I know you didn't ask me, but here is a very plausible scenario for BBRY turnaround:
Smart phone sales worldwide amongst all providers should equal about 500mm in 2014. (conservative)
BBRY worldwind market share in 2014 could = 15 to 20% or 75mm to 100mm handsets. (IF z10 & q10 successful)
Estimated 2014 EPS = to 6.75 to $9.00/share x multiple of 12 = 81 to 108 PPS.
Very simplified, yet plausible.
The risks are great to achieving these earnings, but they ARE achievable.
You can model off of 2010 and 2011 margins and come pretty close to these numbers. Service revenue is also a bit of a wildcard, but recent change in pricing structure is thought to be a negative by the street, which may turn out to be wrong due to increase in total subscribers and a misunderstanding by many of the top tier pricing.
Well, for starters, I can't lose money either. I never go into a deal with a back-up plan or with the possibility of ever losing money. I guess I am not wired that way.
Why do I believe that the stock price will once again surpass $100? It all has to do with the CEO and his long term, high quality approach. He has a brand name that is bigger than Apple in the mobile device world. He took Blackberry's strengths, business, security and the seemingly forgotten need for a better, more intuitive product and weaved it into a well thought out system that goes beyond a single phone.
I have no idea how many phones need to be sold. I don't concern myself with those things. I am not in the phone business. What I do feel confident about is that they will gradually catch up with Apple and Android, and if they can continue to build, surpass them. My expectation is that the share price will rise into three digits simply on the basis that they are a far better and stronger company now than when they were a few short years ago.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Appreciate the post. Loved your take.
Heins IS the key to the success or failure of BBBY. Based on his background and track record in the mobile telecom space, I believe he is the right leader at the right time for BBRY. No doubt Mike L helped bring them to this point, but from here it is Heins who could make BBRY a dominant player in mobile communications.