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# BlackBerry Limited Message Board

• indianasteve2002 indianasteve2002 Feb 18, 2013 6:18 PM Flag

## Projection of Z10 / Q10 sell number in next 12 months

I have to admit that no one can accurately estimate the true sell of the number Z10 / Q10 in next 12 months. However, we can project the sell number based on some known data (which you may or may not agree depending on whom you are).

Method # 1: Based on data of the current BB user base and % converters from other platform:
Current BB user based = 79 million (Source Blackberry latest Q report)
% of converters from other platform vs total Z10 sold
50% (source from Roger)
45% (source from Crackberry survey)
Average = 47.5%.
25% of existing BB user will upgrade to Z10 (+ Q10) in one year (source from several analysts)
With above data, then the project Z10 (+ Q10) sell number will be:
0.25 X 78 * (1 + 0.475/0.5) = 38.05 millions.

Method # 2: Based on Canadian Market Survey Data by Forum Research (asked 1,091 people in Canada, aged 18 or older):
8 per cent said they were “almost certain” to buy one of the devices, while 19 per cent said they are “very likely” to buy one.
Low / high range of the sell # in Canada is 1.2 million to 2.6 million.
% of Blackberry market shares in Canada = 4% (data from THIRD QUARTER FISCAL 2013 RESULTS, which states as follows: 65% other than USA, UK and Canada, USA = 19%, UK = 11% and Canada = 4%).
With above data, then the project Z10 (+ Q10) sell number will be:
The low end = 1.2 / 0.04 = 30 million
The high end = 2.6 / 0.04 = 65 million.
Using the above two methods generate three different sell numbers, such as
30, 38.05 and 65 millions.
The actual number may be in between. So pick one of the number by yourself.
But the actually sell number could be substantially higher than the 65 million upper number if (big IF) a snow ball effect occurs in the coming year.

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