If the price gets back above 15.45 and stays there then the odds favor testing last years high again.
If the price gets back above 16.84 and stay there then the odds favor taking out this years high and taking out 18.32.
The rules are the rules.....and the implications of prices are why the rules exist. This is just how it works. I don't make the rules but I know them. Losing 14.86 is not good. The loss of 12.09 will seal the deal.