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BlackBerry Limited Message Board

  • finalepiphany finalepiphany Mar 8, 2013 2:59 PM Flag

    To all longs and shorts: Can we at least agree on this?

    All these empty talks about sales number which nobody really has a clue about but the company. We will all find out on March 28 at the latest assuming no pre-announcement.

    Are we all at least man enough to admit failure when the actual number actual does come out? The range will be:

    1) 1MM or more sold - Shorts admit they've been wrong, no more #$%$ or whining.
    2) 500k or less sold - Longs admit they've been wrong.

    If it's in the middle, i.e. between 500k to 1M, then this trash talk can continue, but if the number is one of the two scenarios above, will you be man enough to admit mistake on your position?

    This should add credibility and accountability to this forum. Put your name and position (long/short) here if you are man enough. We will quote you on it.

    Starting with myself: I'm long

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    • Be prepared for some pain, shorts!

    • brgarrett Mar 9, 2013 2:35 AM Flag

      Long. 2.5M sold. $$ Increase. This company was left for dead, lost 95% of its value, reorganized itself with new focused leadership, dealt with the co-CEO problem, dispersed Basille's 26M shares long ago, and weather sustained daily attacks of negative, old, rehashed news to scare retail investors into selling shares by a financial system that bet wrong. Company reports, statements from the CEO, etc. all seem to consistently show measured growth, change and innovation. My understanding is that they don't need to do that much to survive and have a base to grow from.

      I believe that strength in the world market outstrips the immediate prevailing USA market/consumer perception of this company. Given choice, innovation, security, etc., I believe the phone will find acceptance amongst a broad swath of people. Blackberry has lost some momentum in the enterprise, an 'assumed' area of strength. They have a competitive consumer offering. The Q10 will take care of itself, through both its loyal fan base and new converts. Personally, its the best phone I have ever experienced. They say its hard to go back to other phones, home keys, separate apps, no multi-tasking, etc. - it becomes intuitive.

      Q4 Sales will surprise to upside. Shorts will eventually start to cover. Mobility will not be decided in a single quarter. US markets are myopic and not considering the companies strength globally. All things in, the US market will just take time to come back on board (2-3 Qs). The phone is innovative, secure, fast. It allows Blackberry to continue to evolve and articulate their vision.

      Finally. QNX. - Could be licensed to other vendors, GM AT&T deal for 2014 (414M cars I beleive with Onstar...). An RTOS built for mobile - years ahead of Cupertino or Malroid. MSFT is closest to actually understanding the issues around cramming a desktop OS onto a phone. iOS is not long for this world in it's current guise. I see a company executing on strategy/innovati

    • vacationcharlie Mar 9, 2013 1:11 AM Flag

      Agreed with OP.
      Z10 doing well ( 1M). Long. Reports of ppl. switiching from other devices very encouraging!
      Starting 2nd qtr., Q10 sales kick in Big Time as keyboardists finally get to upgrade their Bolds... that's where we'll the most pent-up demand IMO.

    • 1) longs never admit they're wrong - they just bounce on over to another alias. it's been like that since $70.
      2) you need to take into account expected BB7 units decline. the company's chasing their town tail and trying to catch up with BB10. 1MM would be yet another failure, given that in 2011 they were doing 14 MM.
      3) sentiment doesn't always equal having a position in stock, long or short. (i'm waiting for the next lower high to buy puts.)

    • did canaccord give you a hint? 300K and then 800K, so totally will be 1.1MM

      Sentiment: Hold

    • First of all, I am long 2,400 shares at an average of $12.86 and predict 1.5 million+ BB10 units sold in the quarter.

      If longs are going to be successful, we MUST see an increase in gross margins. The increase of a higher margin BB10 will add to this in spite of a cannibalization of BB7 units. Enterprise service revenue will likely remain constant. (as per Wells Fargo).

      Sales in Q3 were 2.7 billion with the biggest declines seen in North America while Asia and Latin Pacific markets were stable or increased.

      The mix was 60% hardware, 36% service and 4% other.

      IF current BB7 hardware sales drop 10% this quarter:

      2.7 billion x .60% = $1.62 billion in hardware sales (less 10%) = $1.458 billion in current hardware sales. Therefore total Q = $2,538,000,000

      $2.538 billion in sales for the Q. Now add in sales for the BB10 (with a higher gross margin):
      1,500,000 x $400.00 est = $600,000,000 = $3,138,000,000 sales!

      Here are the numbers from the Street:

      Goldman Sachs: "could sell at much as 1,000,000 in Canada and U.K. alone.
      Target price -$19.00

      Wells Fargo: Upgrade to $20.00 with revenue of $3 billion and eps (.23)

      Credit Suisse: Downgrade to underperform target to $10 from $11. They predict 17 million BB10 devices sold in FY14 with 1 to 2% share.

      Pacific Crest: 275,000 - 325,000 sold Q4, and 1 - 2 million in May quarter with sell-through well below that.

      Scotia Capital: Upgrade to outperform with target of $23.00 and 29,000,000 devices sold in FY14.

      Canaccord: 800,000 and maintain $9.00 target.

      RBC Capital: 500,000, and 10,000,000 BB10 for the year with a $19.00 target.

      There are many others with upgrades and downgrades but didn't supply (or could find numbers) but these have been the most vocal.

      Based on current street consensus:
      A success will be a beat in rev of 2.9 billion, with earnings of better than (.23) ,gross margins of 31%+ and BB10 units of 1,000,000 plus. (1.5 million plus to seal the deal)

      These will be the numbers to beat for the Street to upgrade.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • No clue on the sales number.... Not really short or Long, but I never short this stock... I'm in at $14. and hoping to get out before earnings... I really don't want to be there if the earnings are bad, I want to make a profit on my investment and then get out... I expect that I'll be able to get out before earnings, but may hold 10 percent of my shares for after earnings in case they are good... Honestly though, I don't think it looks good for this stock... They've been losing money the last 3 quarters, and have more than doubled prior to the Z10 launch... even if the sales are good (not super-good, but just good). the stock will likely maintain its current range $12 - $15 till next earnings, if the numbers aren't good, then it drops like a turd down the drain... SHORTS and MM suck, to them, may they lose it all... to the longs, best of luck....

      Sentiment: Hold

    • racebill Mar 8, 2013 7:19 PM Flag

      I have a long long term position but I have short term traded it both long and short mostly long.I'm not qualified to pick sales numbers I know nothing about in other countries. I'm looking for BBRY to hit between $20 and $30 before end of the year.Realistically it's a $13 stock right now.I'm not gonna say I'm wrong because of a number of sales in a few countries of Z10 . What about Q10 or QNX in the auto industry. If it doesn't hit $20 in a year I'll say I was wrong. As far as no shorts admitting anything most of the shorts on here are just bashers or people short term shorting that like to make fun of the know it all crybabies.I can't blame them for that it's easy money and they have some easy targets to bash. quote me on anything I said good luck to everyone

    • long. 2.4 Mil shipped first month. think this is going to stay in 13.50-1500 range until actual numbers are released.

    • Still no short, haha, bunch of cowards.

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