Eventually even if only 50 million subscribers remained (that is loss of 26 million subscribers from current level) and and migrated to BB10 enterprise, paying $5 per month with 70% gross margins,
60*50 = 3 billion * 0.70 = 2.1 billion gross profit = approximately $4 per share = $2.60 per share net with 35% tax
A typical PE for high margin subscription business is 12 to 15 = stock price of 32 to 45
So Blackberry does not have to sell a SINGLE phone to justify $40 valuation. They can just license BB10 to Lenovo, LG, Sony or even Huawei and let them manufacture cheap phones.
While I'm sure there are many flaws in your calculations, it is refreshing to see someone actually doing some calculations and due diligence instead of just commenting on the news and false news.
"Blackberry does not have to sell a SINGLE phone to justify $32 - $45 valuation"
then why are they still trying to sell phones? who not shut down all manufacturing now and save millions?
Subscribers don't pay $5 anymore. Some estimate an average of $3 with this coming down each quarter as these fees are pressured. These fees are going away as can be seen by the company claiming they will have new ways to monetize (rip off) these loyal blackberry users.
Plug that into your equation.