Scotiabank Analysis of May 15 (after Blackberry Live)
If y'all don't follow Gus Papageiorgiou's analysis you really should. He called prior to BB Live that BBM would go to all platforms. He is also calling for (gulp) 0.87 EPS this quarter! Fortunately he has been reasonably accurate on earnings forecast for the last few quarters but he is in the bull camp for sure. Here are his comments:
Recent Update Text as of 15MAY13 . BlackBerry held its annual BlackBerry Live event in Orlando yesterday.
"New Q5 brings BlackBerry 10 to developing markets. With the majority of
BlackBerry's subscribers in emerging markets, where devices do not benefit from
carrier subsidies, we believe the lower-end Q5 BB10 device will drive a huge
upgrade cycle in the latter half of this year.
. BBM goes cross platform. As we predicted in our preview piece, BlackBerry will
make BBM available to iOS and Android devices. We believe the strategy helps the
. company transition to a software and services model.
Mobile computing strategy begins to show its potential. BlackBerry will support
and monetize cross-platform services using the Secure Work Space solution for
iOS and Android devices. In the longer term, BlackBerry envisions connecting
machines, such as cars, through its network.
. Significant upside opportunity. Buy the stock. We believe the Street's estimates
for both hardware and services are too low. With the Q5 launching earlier than
expected, Q10 doing well, and BES 10.1 providing cross-platform BlackBerry
services, we believe BlackBerry is well positioned to beat the Street. We
maintain our Sector Outperform rating."
When does an analyst tell you to "buy the stock". Pretty interesting comments; he's got his finger on the pulse. I will take his comments, Peter Misek's and Chris Umatowski's anyday over Pacd Crest, Canaccord and the other haters.
Scotiabank and now RBC, Canada's two largest retail and investments banks, are now positive on BlackBerry. Don't fight the largest investment banks in the U.S. and Canada. Don't fight the Canadian and U.S. Governments - they both have a vested interest on the success of BlackBerry.
They have guided flat to small profit. I believe that they would only have to provide early guidance in the event of a profit warning. If profit is way up, I don't believe they have to say anything although this would be the most prudent thing to do as it would certainly add shareholder value! Maybe somebody else can comment on a theoretically scenario of higher guidance.