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BlackBerry Limited Message Board

  • markbelfuss markbelfuss May 22, 2013 7:46 PM Flag

    I would like to open a conversation with the longs here

    and hopefully help make some sense of whats happening here. I think we all can agree that the company is turning the corner and will have a brighter future. I can give everybody here a prospective on some of my trading ideas if interested.

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    • xx369@ymail.com xx369 May 23, 2013 4:01 AM Flag

      You need to look at a weekly chart. You will see a symmetrical pattern playing out. It can break either way. Coach tells us to wait for the break before placing any orders to buy or sell.

    • I'm a conservative long, mostly into shorting near term outs here due to the premiums, and the fact that you can make some money even if the stock just churns around like it has recently. Just don't see that much near term downside. Really only 3 outcomes for the next year or two..

      1) The products succeed, price moves up. Maybe future new products? $20-$30+.

      2) The products do OK, buy time to see what else can be developed. Maybe gets bought out for a small premium. Prob. pretty close to $15 trading range today.

      3) Products fail, cash begins to slip. But even here it would be a slow process with the strong cash, saleable patents, and no debt Still potential for a buyout, a partial liquidation, or perhaps another shot at some new winning products. Still hard to justify under $12 unless some really ugly cash drop.

      The bear scenario if an offshoot of No. 3, and certainly has validity, but from my mind it would take a couple of years of controlled cash burn to get really worried. Seems like these shorts think there is some significant near term profit potential, where I think they are playing for a few dollar trading swing versus much risk on the upside, better odds at a roulette wheel.

    • I am not sure why most of us in the MB set a price range around 30-40 for BBRY. But that is not for me, i either get out before $25 or stay for at least 5 to 6 years. i believe if the share price passed $25 then this company will have a great chance to be very big. The only way this company will make big again is to become a true Mobile company. If BBRY successfully pulls this off and no one else is doing the same thing in the next 2 years, i would say we will have a gold mine in our hand.Couple hundred dollars per share is totally possible. I am really surprise by now that BBRY have not allowed their phone M2M to the radio in our car. this function would be a great selling point for BBRY. By opening BBM to all platforms is the best thing they have done and on their way to be a mobile company. I hope they pull it off. Channeling can be big money maker too. When we reach $25 then i will reevaluate how the company performs to their goal of becoming a mobile company and decide what to do with my BBRY shares at that time. As long as BBRY is performing along and fulfilling their goals, drop in stock price should be a buying opportunity but other than that don't dump all money in one basket. Invest wisely, invest in increments; this one will be a long road and a tough investment that requires a lot of patience because of that I don't buy share by using margin.
      I would have bought BBRY when they were $7 but decide not to because it was just gambling. But now the company clearly have a plan with money and a good CEO, the odd this company will be successful is great. At 15$ is not late to buy in. Just hope they keep performing well.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I started to invest in BB at the 14 level and consistently added as I averaged down. I have a nice number of shares to make a very nice profit at anything over 20, but will hold for a longer period. I don't day trade. I have over many years followed Buffet regarding holding till I see a change in fundamentals taking place which they are in a favorable direction. Right now the change will be a higher pps over the nest two to three quarters. You would have to be a fool to not see all the genuine accolades of those that have bought the Z10. Trading long takes a lot of stress out of investing as long as you do your own DD and pay no attention to the BS and daily upticks or down ticks. So far over the years I've done quite well and will with this stock as well. GLTA

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • dbryand44@sbcglobal.net dbryand44 May 22, 2013 10:00 PM Flag

      you are certainly correct, BBRY is turning the corner and it is safe to say when a company finds itself at this
      point there will be volitility. I am sure many of you witness their recent presentation, impressive their model is set up for future growth. I am long and hoping see BBRY at 40.00 once again...

      best to all

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • This is very simple. Blackberry is the Black Sheep of Mobile. It is the only non-US company with an out-standing mobile platform. Short-sellers betted against it and they made a wrong bet. So now they have embarked on a huge negative, perhaps illegal, campaign to discredit the company and scare the longs.

      I think day-trading this stock is not for me. I bought and holding them and we will see in a few years if it goes to over $100. Day to day prices are controlled by manipulators, news generators and I have absolutely no advantage in that area. I did my due diligence, bought the stock and now I monitor the progress whenever time allows. Let the traders and scalpers have their fun.

      Blackberry will win in the end and that is when I collect my winnings.But I agree, the company should respond to these vicious, false attacks so they do not damage the company.

      If Apple or Microsoft had the technology embedded in BB10, the whole media and wall street would be singing praise.

    • I love sharing investment ideas. I troll this MB, looking for some reasonable common sense approaches to this stock which seem to elude most posters here on this board. There are some that seem to have blow a fuse when you suggest that, what's going on here is an opportunity.

      My belief, is this company has turned a corner. This is not a short term investment/day trade, true you can day trade this, but to be long you must hold long. I've been politicking today, when my day job allowed me, that these dips (bear raids) are good opportunities to make some money by establishing a long term growth strategy rather then looking at short term day trades. Most believe that this stock is set to skyrocket post earnings in June. I'm not that optimistic, I believe that major players are awaiting several positive quarters before opening a larger position in this stock. I believe that the "short squeeze" although possible will be a slow unraveling, rather than a drastic Netflix like spike.

      Looking at the last quarter income statement, their financial strength is very positive, the basic valuation of the stock PSR, PCF all look good and give an indication that this stock in under valued. When I invest I pay very little attention to the big analysts simply because there can and is colluding that occurs amongst the firms. Therefore, I do my own due diligence and look at fundamentals and decide my own course of action. I never invest more than I can afford too lose. for full disclosure, I am long the stock, and have open positions in both long and short options positions with various strike prices and expirations. Additionally, I'm and engineer by trade with a MBA in finance.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • VERY nice thread on this stupid board for the first time in a LONG time. Thank You guys for starting it. I like the comments and perspectives that were posted (no bashers or pumpers). I, to, am long with more shares then I should have but I really believe in the company. As with "yourwish", I also sell covered calls and do quite nice. I am also retired and just hate seeing the stock get pounded as it has been. I'm hoping that next month's earnings call will put all the negative bashing to rest and let management do what it does best and just keep innovating and bringing new stuff to market. The products should sell themselves. Thanks again for the thread and would REALLY like to see it again.
      Flip.

    • Mark, what is happening here is simple yet complex, as it has several facets.

      One year ago it looked like there was a good chance of BB failing to remain in business or at best to ever regain a serious position in the mobile marketplace. People placed their bets against BB continuing in business by selling the stock short, which would win them all they had received.
      They could have won a lot but, as with all short selling, their losses could be even greater.

      Blackberry has finally pushed its new products & system onto the marketplace and it is doing very well in sales and has been well received by the technical folks. Now the danger looms for the short sellers, facing significant losses. AT $15 now, and the average receipt of a short seller north of $10 and 160 million shares to be bought back, the looses in aggregate are in the $600million range.
      Lots of people get killed for $20 in the US .......... never mind $600 million.
      Thus the fight comes down to a propaganda battle using analysts and proxies, in an effort to bring down belief in Blackberry's stock using all and means possible, a game that Americans are well versed in executing.

      The longs have some factors in their favour,mainly faith in the company and its productsand the fact that BB has no debt and almost $3 billion in the treasury plus a lengthy list of faithful subscribers who have always stuck with Blackberry through some' less than marktet-shattering products', while the iPhone and Galaxy proudcts have taken over leadership of the mobile market.

      I'm a small investor and although retired, wouldn't jump out of a window if BB went broke tomorrow and I lost all of what I've put into this stock, so I don't get too carried away with the hype of bashers or boosters.

      • 1 Reply to jagsfantoo
      • I thank you for your response. You are right about the history of of company. I make my trades in and out based on the technicals , but first the fundamentals. I also use some simple patterns of number calculations. I trade in and out every week and month buying on weakness and selling on the rallies using my tools. Since the lows were put in I have done very well with many trades and only had maybe 2 bad ones. I will stick with my strategy until the short interest comes down to a normal level. As my strategy only can work on highly shorted companies with recovering fundamentals.

    • I'd like to hear it. The way i see it, we should be at $30 by the end of the year. Patience is a virtue.. and many including myself don't have that much patience... but I've got not much choice at this point but to just ride it out... Averaged in at $14.05, so no sense in doing anything at this point... Sell covered calls to lower my average when I get the chance...

      Sentiment: Hold

 
BBRY
9.92-0.08(-0.80%)Jul 22 4:00 PMEDT

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