in my opinion....
Really do you people actually know whats going on here?
There is a by-election next week.
The irish people blame the greed of the banks for this mess and now you think they are going to save the banks...no way ..absolutely no way.
Also you can bet that the the european central bank and the imf are not giving money for nothing.
People disregard the idiot pumpers here talking about 4 0r 5 a share.
It just wont happen.
The irish government will want to look like its going down hard on the banks...not helping to lift share price.
Nationalisation after major dilution is on the cards..as everyone here already knows(and i know the finance minister said no nationalisation...he said the same thing with anglo irish..and it was nationalised a few months later)
Oh and one more thing...this will drift down this week under 52 week low, when reality sets in and the pumper traders have moved on..count on it
Will they handle the bailout like the US did?
The banks showed a huge profit after the bailouts because.....they were give free money, a no-interest loan, then, with that, they bought govt. debt (with interest).
It's a shell game.
And you're tellling us this because you're just concerned for the wellbeing of longs, or because you have a short interest and want to see IRE go down more?
Unless you have a contact at the IMF or the ECB you have no idea what's going to come out of this. A relief rally alone will burn a lot of shorts, but yes if the plan agreed upon is deemed negative for IRE shareholders it'll go lower fast. Definitely a gamble here whichever side of the trade your on, but one with huge potential profits.
Disclosure: Long IRE at $2.34 but ready to bail if the technicals break down.
MHARRIS ..you are WRONG for the following reasons. The IMF is already involved. The European system is already involved with everything interwoven. No one is looking for a handout , it is only the illusion or (backstopping) of monetary liquidity. Germany/France ...all the powers that be already have a vested interest in money already on loan ...there own credit spreads ..and because there own country's banks own so many other PIG bonds -they want to get paid. So they will give Ireland a sweet deal. All they will do is provide Ireland (and any other Euro bank for that matter) resources (IF THEY NEED THEM) A CREDIT LINE . ..that in itself will return bond spreads to normal and normalize economic and banking situation. Without the threat of nationalization or bankruptcy IRE will spike to 3.50 -4.00 and then the real questions will emerge about business operations and earning recovery ...over and out
You're forgetting how much $ the Irish have invested in pension funds, heavily skewed in banks, especially IRE, which if managed properly has the best chance of making a serious comeback. Throwing the banks to the wolves would destroy pensions. The people hate the banks, but they are depending on their recovery for many reasons. It's hard medicine, but they are taking it.
They hate to see the banks win, can't blame them really. But if the banks fail, if they are nationalized, then everybody loses, everybody, global corps will flee. Same thing happened in the US, it was despised by the people, but the alternative would have been meltdown. IRE will be the poster child of the Irish recovery. You may be right about fluctuations, under $2, who knows. But I'm talking 5 painful years from now. Do you really believe this will go on forever? Ireland showed its promise, and admittedly blew it, but who didn't? That promise will be remembered.
The EU is basically picking its team now. Some will be thrown to the wolves and forced to restructure, forced to settle for a much more realistic standard of living, forever. Ireland will have to work its way through its debt, but it can through exports; Greece can't, Portugal can't. EU will not be a club of equals anymore, there will be a Northern Eurozone, wealthy. And a Southern, not so much. Ireland has one of the best educated populations in the world, it has a relatively young population, no small thing in an aging Europe, it is English speaking, it has attracted dozens of global corps to open its Euro HQs in. That won't change, corp rate might go up a few points, but it will still be 10-15 points lower than mainland Euro. If you're in IRE, best thing to do is go away and come back in two years. Hope I can take my own advice, it sure isn't easy.
I dont totally disagree with this, interesting insights. I lost some money on the way down but covered it and then some on this bounce bounce up. I should prob lock it in and move elsewhere....or maybe buy again lower? contemplating option plays