Treto, from your posts on ire you absolutely love shorting this stock...which may be a good strategy given the less than expected EU progress, etc. However, being the strongest of the irish banks I am convinced that eventually they will recover even if it is in twenty years. So my question to the yogy bear of ire(and anyone reading this for that matter), where would your bottom be approx? At what price both ire and bir would you turn bullish or end your shorts? Logic behind it...etc. Thanks
11c is fair value and that equates to $6.50. I was long BIR from 8c untill 14.1c and I am sitting on the side at the moment. The book value is around 25c or 15$ and we need to be making a profit to trade at book value. I would see this share get to 20-30$ when we see profits again. I have eps at -1$ 2013, 0,2014, 1$ 2015 so if we get to 1$ 2015 then we are trading at 30$. tretomobil is right the ADR is flaky so I trade the BIR or BKIR. If you bought this share and went away and forgot about it for two years you will probably make very good money but it could be a rough ride if you keep looking at it. Just my 1/2 cents worth.
these numbers are a fair market bottom for bir / ire. ire is a joke adr, controlled by a group of hedge funds looks for muppet money.
bir.ir on the other hand, still has many hurdles to cover. 1st the ie. state needs to get out of this stock. that could take another 24 months to happen. 2nd, bir.ir has too many outstanding shares. the gov't will not allow a reverse split, nor do they want to see the price rise.
and 3rd, bank of ireland, need to sell 3, 5, 7 & 10 year bonds, along with offering 10, 15 & 20 year fixed mortgage rates. rolling over 3 & 6 months bonds, is a fools ride. big money likes to plan out 3, 5, 7 & 10 years out for growth. not 3, 6 & 12 months. this is why the bank struggles to entice new borrows from entering a position.
all of these issues will take time to put in place. i would wait for a major pullback, before i commit new funds to this issue.
i WOULD NOT buy the adr, as the american hedges, are gambling with this issue. if you want to play currency and share price buy and sell CRH. that issue trades daily @ par with the euro / usd trade.