On the call, they discussed margin compression resulting from an increase in services revenue as a percent of overall revenue. First, licenses sales should be increasing substantially faster than service revenue at this stage of the product lifecycle. Second, I believe that they are using a very aggressive approach for recognizing service revenue.
Unless they make the transition from the SMB to Enterprise market very rapidly, you are going to see further compression and more losses. Quite frankly, they appear to be in the same boat as so many SaaS companies. Lacking the ability the create additional sources of revenue (support contracts), the growth is going to plateau and they will need to find a buyer.
In the short term, they are probably pumping their pipeline to the analysts, resulting in the upgrades. And, they are clearly enjoying the love of the cloud by investors. Although the price might retreat a few dollars, I don't believe that you will see serious movement to the downside, until they prove that they are overmatched in the Enterprise.
Because not even offsetting true G&A with stock option grants to mask the underlying negative cash flows, and not even with the buzz surrounding the term "Cloud", which we know is vapor, and that usually ends in rain, no one wants to pay the price to offset the incredible development and overhead costs necessary to produce a viable product, the market of which is only speculative at this juncture. They have never produced a profitable GAAP quarter in the history of the company and none is forecast through 2014. You be the judge.
This has to be the biggest non-profit organization for the benefit of its employees and corporate America at the expense of shareholders funding the hype. Think about that for a second. They never made a dime. Things are not getting better, just worse. I am short.