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Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Message Board

  • tedlid5 tedlid5 Mar 24, 2011 8:08 AM Flag

    FCX and Copper Charts


    FCX price moving back up to create a right shoulder for an H&S. Strong resistance at 57.5 so the 55-58 area si a good candidate for the right shoulder. Eventual failure of neckline at 47-ish will usher in a 32 target as weeks and months tick by into summer time.

    FCX chart google 'keystone speculator' or, just as easy, view at 'stockcharts public charts list keystone speculator', FCX chart is #3840, plenty of copper and other metal, base metal charts, JJC, etc....

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    • Interesting comments by everyone. In the 90's, I used to trade 100% on fundamentals, as time progressed, I moved towards TA and for many years now I trade about 95% based on TA, only 5% fundies.

      To speak generally, fundies suit analytical minds, engineers, accountants, etc..., and is great for long term trading, investing. But, as the saying goes, we are all dead long term.

      TA suits those that are more creative, visual, and more comfortable using this part of their personality, and, by its nature, TA is definitely for short term trading rather than long term investing.

      When asked about trading, the first thing I will ask folks is what is your personality. Soul search yourself, even psychoanalyze yourself, as many of us constantly do, and be honest with yourself, about your personality, and then build your own trading platform based on your personality, not on what others do.

      There is no right or wrong answer, fundies and TA are both great trading platforms.

      For the FCX H&S, TA is all about forecasting ahead of time using chart analysis, there are infinite tools to use and it takes many years to refine the craft. The injustice is jokers on tv telling people this or that is what the chart says as if there is only one way to read a chart.

      The advantage of TA is that in the short term you definitely can determine if the call was correct, or not; for fundies, however, there is never accountability, the easy answer is I am a long term investor, so wait a few years and it will work out.

      Back to the FCX potential H&S, it is easy to see on the chart, head is 62-ish, left shoulder 52.5, right shoulder now forming at 54.0-57.5. Neckline is 46 so 62-46=16, subtract 16 from 46 gives a 30-32 target area should the neckline fail.

      Interestingly, price closed yesterday right on top of the 20 day MA at 54.1-54.3. Give price leeway to the 57.5 resistance ceiling, but currently, the projection would be sideways to sideways down moving forward, and watch out if the 46-ish neckline is lost.

      Keep in mind also that all traders talk their own book. If long, the stock is touted as great, if they are short they will tout it as a mess. Obviously, many traders are long FCX and are spending sleepless nights worrying if price will come back up again for higher highs. Do not hold your breath.

      Good luck all, trading is in your blood.

      Google charts at 'keystone speculator' or view them at 'stockcharts public charts list keystone speculator'.

      • 1 Reply to keybotthequant
      • I do both. I short term trade and am long FCX so I like it all :-) You are right . .it is whatever suits you and your style of investing. I think it all has merits and good luck to however you do it. :-) That site has some interesting charts and comments. Thanks for your post and I have bookmarked that site.

        Here is the chart from that site on FCX and the pattern is drawn on a weekly chart:

        This is the commentary that goes with site on that chart:

        FCX Freeport McMoran weekly chart shows a right shoulder forming now. Not a day goes by without this company in the news and traders use it as a direct proxy for copper. Negative divergence spanked it down to start the year. Copper has struggled recently but popped back up yesterday. Note how stingy the chart is with leaving gaps behind, the only gaps present now are below in the 38 to 43 area.

        Price closed above the 20 MA which is bullish but the 57.5 level offers up strong resistance. This 55-58 area is a good candidate for a right shoulder for the pink H&S. Note the tweezer bottom that occurred at the 47 neckline a couple weeks ago. The 32 level would be targeted if/when the neckline fails at 47. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.

    • Ted,

      Ten gold pieces to the one who spots the The Great Right Shoulder! Ready your lances and harpoons! Who will join me in a blood-oath to hunt The Great Right Shoulder. To the boats lads, put your backs into it! Just ignore the weird tattooed dude with the casket. (apologies to Herman Melville, I couldn't help myself).

      Someone needs to go back to chart school. I don't see a head & shoulders.

      Rule of thumb: Markets create charts, charts don't create markets.

      • 2 Replies to bigmoneymine
      • <<Someone needs to go back to chart school. I don't see a head & shoulders.>>

        Try looking at a one-year chart. It's clear enough--and yes, a right shoulder has formed. But H&S tops can only be validated in hindsight, once the price closes below a line drawn between the two "bottom" points.

        <<Rule of thumb: Markets create charts, charts don't create markets.>>

        Other than a dash of self-fullfilling prophecy at support and resistance points, I completely agree. Charts know nothing. They are merely reflections of price activity.

        The reason the day-trading techniques on this board "work" is because prices tend to move in zig-zag fashion with the trend, and can be taken advantage of very short term. Those 3/5 crosses, etc. work in the direction of the trend. It's the trend (or momentum) that makes it possible to trade.

        Does this make sense to you?

      • H & S or not . .I don't know . but markets DO create charts. So agree. TA is secondary but does aid the trader or investor greatly when it comes to odds. Seems the first choice is sector, second is stock you pick and third is TA to help you navigate your entry/exits. IMO :-) Thanks again for those links.

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