Investing based on analysts targets in this sector is an futile. They have gotten it dead wrong for the past three years that I've been around. Look at the target prices for VLCCF and FRO to name a couple. Pretty sad :( Your better off doing your own DD imho.
I agree with your thinking on the high side of the range 41-42 the very top before ex-dividend. I don't think the falloff will be go down much more then 36-37, and that may take a month or so. That said, if you are a small holder it may not be worth it to trade back and forth. I own several dividend plays that I could work like that but don't wish to put in the time or the risk reward ratio is not right.
Like I said, I think you are correct on this and I sold 2000 shares yesterday at 40.65 with the intention of buying them back in the next month at about 36-37. This is more of a one time deal with me and I intend to stay long in the future unless a very good scenerio presents itself again.