i have the feeling the analyst is moving the share much more aggressive then the reports from the shipping industry or the comments of the CEO!!!!!
On the second link, the futures rates for TD5 are the Suezmax rates. However, the futures rates are based on the 2009 WS baseline, which is about 38% higher than 2008 (see first link). I'm not 100% sure how the flatscale rates work into the TCE rates...I THINK that TCE is arrived at by taking a rate based on the flat rate (basically flat rate * WS /100) and subtracting voyage costs. I think the base rate is cost per metric ton for the entire trip. So looking at TD5, $5.44 net change * 130,000 / 34 days on a trip = $20,800 additional per day based on 2009 WS vs. 2008 WS at WS100. So $20,800 / 200 = $208 additional per WS point in 2009 than 2008 (say, round to 200 to make it easy, and to recognize it is somewhat of a guess). Right now, Q1 forwards for TD5 is WS 76, Q2 is WS68, and all of 2009 is 70.25. Taking 76 and 225 bunkers off of Platou's site for WS 2008 yields about $24K. To adjust to 2009, add 76*200 = $15,200 and you get about $39K for Q1, 2009. 68 would be about $20K in 2008 plus $13,600 = $33,500/day or so. 70.25 for the entire year would be $21K based on 2008 + $14K = $35K. Which portends dividends under $1. No where near wiping out the dividend entirely, but not good, none the less.
i would have thought all the yield-chasers had been wiped out by auction rate preferreds, sub-prime MBS, Yen carry trades, etc. Guess not. How about looking at forward tanker rates instead of looking in the rear-view mirror. Forward rates are just awful - the dividend will essentially disappear in 2009.
To the dividend question... don't look strictly at the dividend yield (20%),,, the dividend here fluctuates.
Still, this is an excellent long term investment, especially if you DRIP it.
interd0g, before you poo poo charts again, study the art. Just as fundamental analysis has it strengths, so does technical. Combined, they make excellent tools for avoiding investing pitfalls. I've used both for decades. Neither method is superior to the other. Together they have been a life saver for me, as well as a money maker.
The move in NAT has little to do with Cramer. I think the guy is a bit of a joke but he is correct on NAT being the best of the Tankers shipping co's. You keep refering to "read the charts" for the overbought arguement you profess. I'm wondering what chart you want us to read? The one that shows no net debt? The one that shows a 20% yld, 99% asset utilization, increased shareholder equity? As far as price goes, they are at the midway point in the yearly range, not at the top. The downgrade was because the assalist said the earning would decrease but NAT gives no earnings guidence and the CEO has already said he's booked up and at good rates. They will not have a shortfall next year and my guess is the div is safe and over $1.40, maybe as high as $1.60. Good investing to all and to all a good night!