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Heartware International Inc. Message Board

  • tonasket75 tonasket75 Nov 15, 2010 10:48 PM Flag

    These devices have little benefit and patients

    These devices keep a very few people alive hoping they can get a heart transplant. Very few patients meet the criteria and very few hearts are available to transplant. This device is NOT some big breakthrough with millions of that would benefit from. People who have these devices, are ones whose EF is not enough to perfuse the brain and who are "hoping" for a heart transplant..(who obviously havent got one yet) you drill down on the number of people in that situation..not a large number...I would be very careful staying long this stock over long run..the numbers of patients just arent there. I suppose there will be a short squeeeze here...since only one other player in the game...their device ..have seen..cardiac cripples hoping to get a heart transplant..
    unless one can replicate the heart in a more physiologic manner..I personally dont see this as any sort of breakthrough ..and very few patients ..my view is once the dust settles..shorts will cover...then stock goes down when reality of sets in.....
    havent looked at short interest in stock..will..that will tell one how long to ride it up if any and when to short...or short now...and be patient...
    good luck all

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    • Look betond BTT patient population and look forward to DT patient population and maybe you will realize how utterly ridiculous your post is. That is what the market has their eyeballs on. Research the numbers of HF patients that have NO OTHER OPTION and perhaps you will realize why the market cap is so high.
      Also, you will be hard pressed to tell anyone that had a device, has a device, or is getting a device as BTT as useless.
      The success of these devices in lives saved in the BTT population is forging the path to DT trials and ultimate approvals.

      • 3 Replies to clearobserver2000
      • Man, you sure seem sure of your opinions. As someone who did the anesthesia management of these patients with the first heartmate device for ten years, as well as more than 100 transplants, would have to disagree with you. This device will improve survival and likely increase scope of market for this type of therapy. Is the market cap a bit crazy now, yes, but the device has its place and will rapidly compete with existing devices. The revenues for a device like this will likely only be in the 1-2B/year when the market penetration is full, but leading edge technology frequently gets overvalued. Important technology for many reasons, including many we do not see today- like semi-permanent implantation- which could be a lot cheaper than managing renal failure, coagulation problems and multi-organ disease in NYHC IV patients. Might replace transplant for patients older than 60.

      • By the way the study if you read it was just over 100 patients. This again is my point, few patients, the power of the study very low.

      • Health care costs will eventually have to be rationed in some shape or form. This patient population is a small subset that with LVAD can "keep them alive" awhile longer, however, unless they get a heart transplant, these patients will die from there heart failure. An analogy is some drug that extends a uniformly fatal disease by 6 months. There is NO cure for these patients except a heart transplant which are pretty hard to come by and the criteria for "getting on the list" ..most of the patients I see with these devices, the end game is the same. They die. When a patient reaches a point where their ejection fraction is so low they need a mechanical device to circulate blood, this is a fatal condition whose only answer is heart transplant which very very few every get while their lives are extended a bit. Sad but , that is the hand God dealt them. Just this week, a patient only 48 with a LVAD was told he really should consider Hospice care. The devices cannot replicate normal heart and blood clots are a problem..many suffer from strokes despite the blood thinners they are on. So sure, a LVAD can extend life by some months, but the reality is that vast majority never get a heart transplant and they die of a condition that is fatal. That is the reality and science of the condition which you apparently have no knowledge of. I view LVAD (left ventricular assit devices) as grasping at staws for a fatal condition for which the only "cure" is a new heat and only a small fraction of such patients will get a heart transplant..they suffer longer only to die . It is sad, but is the hand God dealt these patients.

 
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