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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

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  • di_vur_se_fi di_vur_se_fi Oct 17, 2001 2:23 AM Flag

    Company Store Sales Trends (Part 1)

    (continued from Part 1)

    FY02Q1 estimate of sales per NEW store
    1) Sales in FY01Q1 = 50,956
    2) Sales in FY02Q1 = 60,694
    3) Company Store Sales Growth = 13.1%
    4) Number of stores used in same store sales calculation = 55 (2 of 58 stores opened at FY01Q1 were closed within the next year and 1 had just been opened)

    To arrive at the company store sales base:
    1) Subtract the sales for the 2 stores closed
    2) Subtract the sales for the 1 store just opened (assume the store was open during the entire quarter and had sales of $750,000)
    50,956 - 2 * 400 - 1 * 750 = 49,606

    Given the cumulative company store sales base of 49,606, calculate the same store sales for the 55 stores in FY02Q1 using the Company Stores Sales Growth reported by KKD:
    49,606 * ( 1 + 13.1%) = 56,104

    Subtract this number from the FY02Q1 sales to get the sales attributable to the NEW company stores (including Northern California):
    60,694 - 56,104 = 4,590

    By FY02Q1 KKD had opened 3 company owned stores and 5 No. Cal. stores. Calculate the FY02Q1 estimate of sales per NEW store:
    4,590 / 8 = 574


    FY02Q2 estimate of sales per NEW store
    1) Sales in FY01Q2 = 51,484
    2) Sales in FY02Q1 = 61,496
    3) Company Store Sales Growth = 11.9%
    4) Number of stores used in same store sales calculation = 55 (2 of 57 stores open at FY01Q1 were opened within the previous 18 months)

    To arrive at the company store sales base:
    1) Subtract the sales for the 2 stores recently opened (assume both stores were open during the entire quarter and had sales of $750,000)
    51,484 - 0 * 400 - 2 * 750 = 49,984

    Given the cumulative company store sales base of 49,984, calculate the same store sales for the 55 stores in FY02Q2 using the Company Stores Sales Growth reported by KKD:
    49,984 * ( 1 + 11.9%) = 55,932

    Subtract this number from the FY02Q1 sales to get the sales attributable to the NEW company stores (including Northern California):
    61,496 - 55,932 = 5,564


    By FY02Q2 KKD had opened 9 company owned stores and 6 No. Cal. stores. The 6th No. Cal store was opened on May 15, so it was open for 5/6 of the quarter. Assume that the 3 transferred stores from the reaquisition of Savannah and Charleston were NOT included in the company store figure. Also, assume that the 3 stores opened during the quarter were opened at the middle of the quarter, so they counted as 3 * 0.5 = 1.5 stores. Calculate the FY02Q2 estimate of sales per NEW store:
    5,564 / (8 + 5/6 + 1.5) = 538

    Thus, I estimate the following:

    Period, Estimate of NEW Company Store Average Sales
    FY01Q4 837
    FY02Q1 574
    FY02Q2 538

    In other words, sales have fallen off by over 35% in these stores from FY01Q4 to FY02Q2.

    Note: This calculation assumes that I understand the KKD same store sales calculation; if, however, I do not, I challenge the board to provide an alternative calculation.

 
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