Well, let me tell you Timmy boy......
Since July 2nd when I re-bought KKD, this "Idiot" made some nice $$.
Bet it was more than you made! No, I won't ask you to prove it, as I won't prove it to you. I wouldn't give you any info on my personal trades.
Besides, I'm too busy laughing at you to prove anything to you........hahahaha
Stocks that are priced to perfection will usually disappoint, and then the downside is swift and harsh. Look at what happened to Starbucks (SBUX) a few weeks ago when they released earnings. They met expectations, but tempered outyear forecasts. Stock went from 25 to around 19 pronto.
"Thats a great synopsis Tim! Couldn't agree more."
Let me second that.
IMHO KKD is just the reverse of a value stock. KKD has terrific downside potential because it is priced for perfection. Every bit of good news is reflected in its price; no bad news is built in.As we all know, this is a formula that invariably leads to price correction.
Thats a great synopsis Tim! Couldn't agree more.
Their growth forecasts are nothing more than the good old ruler method. International expansion has its risks, and forecasts may be optimistic. At these valuations (forward or historical PE or PEG), the donut is way, way overvalued. Heck, even if they make their forecasts, you're still staring at a PE north of 50. For a donut company! Unbelievable.
Bottom line, I'm very happy to borrow shares to sell to members of the KKD cult.
>If insider selling is the reason you are short, then the market will teach you an invaluable lesson.<
Insider selling is not the primary reason I'm short KKD. I'm short KKD because:
1. It's grossly overvalued compared to it's peers, even considering the growth.
2. The apparant earnings growth is coming from franchize sales and from managing the timing on expenditures. It's smoke, no fire.
3. There are numerous mature KKD stores in my area. They're dirty and underpatronized and offer an overpriced product to the market place.
4. The constant barage of KKD PR is smoke. Advertising puff. Generates a cult following of naive investors and long lines at new store openings, but that's all. Not repeat sales, not brand loyalty, nothing of lasting value.
5. KKD generously, generously compensates insiders with stock shares (diluting shares of the investors) and the insiders sell those shares in dispropotionate amounts compared to solid companies. KKD does not expense those shares in it's reporting.
6. For the past year, KKD has been channeling. Swings between somewhat predictable highs and lows with freat volatility. It's a low risk short when it bumps up near those highs.
6. Strata, gooo_navy, whatever, etc. are obvious idiots (typical KKD culties) and they're long KKD.
Guys, why do you continue to argue with those CRETINS about this POS. Do not you want see all those DEGENERATE cheerleaders wiped out when this GAMBLING STOCK OF THE DECADE will finally crater? I do, so could you please join me and stop these pointless arguments.
Still 7000 shares short.
Subj: Re: +1.74 not bad
Date: 07/29/02 07:36 pm
>If insider selling is the reason you are >short, then the market will teach you an >invaluable lesson. The long term trend in KKD >is up.
I think the reasons have been posted many times before unless your short term memory is shot.
Some of the reasons besides lots of Insider Selling:
1. No insider buying....NONE!
2. Ridiculous valuation based on virtually any financial measure including PE, PEG, discounted cash, book value or EBITDA.
3. Secular Bear Market
4. Product is Donuts. Is junk food really worth 60 times earnings.
5. Inflated true earnings due to options expense.
6. Possible future forced options expensing.
7. Long term trend is DOWN. Actually look at the chart this time. 1 year, 9 months or 6 months. Trend is down.
I have more but lets save that for another day.
Nobody is disputing that some insiders have sold. The point is that it is a normal course of a growing business to have insiders selling some shares to balance their portfolios and reap some rewards for growing that business at a steady clip. I have not seen any indication that insiders are selling every share they own. If insider selling is the reason you are short, then the market will teach you an invaluable lesson. The long term trend in KKD is up.