Just checked my Dow Jones News Retrieval and was stunned by what I saw.
Just on Aug 8 alone over 10 people have registered to sell their stock! The total shares registered just for yesterday is 2,410,000 shares!!! One insider alone registered 1,500,000 shares (filer name is Jubilee Investments Limited Partners, yeah I bet they are going to have one hell of a jubilee).
6 people registered to sell on 9-5
8 people registered to sell on 9-4,
and the story goes on and on. So far, I have not seen anyone register to buy the stock.
What's happening???? Did KKD hit an iceberg??
What a massive amount of dumping. So glad the individual investor (otherwise known as sucker) is stepping in to buy all these shares at the top.
Good luck all (you are going to need it).
"That has got to be one of the most idiotic statements I have read on this board."
You have had a memory lapse and forgotten about your own idiotic statements.
Those are indeed the most idiotic statements presented on this board.
You continue to show, on a daily basis, that your hypocrisy is primary character trait.
<< if you can handle double-digit numbers, do the math, and consider the dilutive effect on CMX; then understand that the 2.1 shares of CMX for each ADVP (with 10% in cash) makes ADVP worth about what it's trading for today. >>
Of COURSE it's worth about what it's trading for today relative to CMX; that's the point. And if CMX goes up, so will ADVP. This is the meaning of "lock step", in case you skimmed over that part of my post.
<< ADVP is a sell; CMX is a buy. Why do YOU think ADVP is selling for less than it was the day after the merger was announced, and why do YOU think two investment houses changed their evaluation of ADVP to SELL the day after the announcement. >>
The only reason for any divergence would be a changing probability of merger completion, or perhaps some difference in the treatment of the cash outlay (tax repurcussions?) But these would be expected to be minor, and would represent arbitrage opportunities for an adept market player, thereby bringing about rapid reconvergance. As for analysts changing their recommendations, that would most likely be reflective of valuation concerns regarding the combined post-merger company, based on the recent rapid price appreciation.
The simple fact is, the stock prices are not likely to diverge for any reason other than doubts about the merger itself, so that factor alone will determine any pre-merger premium afforded CMX by the market. The only way ADVP could be a sell while CMX was a buy would be if there was a significant chance that the merger will fall through. If you think that is the case, then the proper play would be to go long CMX and go short an equivalent amount of ADVP. But based on the way the stocks have traded over the last five days, it would seem that few doubt that the merger will go through.
<< Favor to ask please: will you please short some CMX for me. thanks >>
That would be the worst of all plays, given the above. But thanks for asking.
citation502, speaking of lame, you wrote:
<< I held ADVP up thru the merger announcement. I now think that CMX is a buy; and that ADVP is just dead money. Institutions will probably dump ADVP, and then re-enter after the merger, or buy CMX from here up to 25 or so. >>
That has got to be one of the most idiotic statements I have read on this board. Did you even read the terms of the merger? ADVP shareholders get 90% stock:
"AdvancePCS shareholders will receive value equivalent to 2.15 shares of Caremark Rx stock for each AdvancePCS share, to be paid in Caremark Rx stock (90 percent) and cash (10 percent)."
The two stocks will therefore be pretty much in lockstep until the merger is completed, as long as the probability of completion doesn't change:
So how in hell can CMX be a buy while ADVP is simultaneously just dead money? Do you honestly think ADVP could remain flat while CMX moves up? If institutions actually dumped ADVP while buying CMX, the resulting divergence between the two stocks would present the arbitrage opportunity of the century. (But don't hold your breath - it ain't gonna happen.)
Told u once, I only short
Interesting you should mention CMX - I've been long ADVP for quite a while (closed out last week, though). Thinking that's a good long term play you've got there, might wait another week to shake past the merger news, though.
Either way, time will tell for KKD, I still think we're headed for $35 on this one. People can stop buying dounuts tomorrow. Doubt they'll do the same for their meds....
Man, what is up with you guys. I dont get it. I guess its good we all arent in one room. You
I would not normally waste my time, but I ALWAYS like a personal challenge. I am marking my calendar for Nov. 15 with **CITATION502** scratched right next to it. I will talk to you then. Your shoulders should be feeling much better as your bag will be MUCH more empty than it is now. Gobble Gobble Mother