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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

  • i_love_kkdonuts i_love_kkdonuts Nov 26, 2003 10:51 AM Flag

    Go Krispy Go!!

    All you longs out there, move your butt and buy some more stock! Let's get Krispy to $50 by Xmas!!! That will be a nice gift for all of us, loyal fans of the big Krispy.

    And for all the short naysayers, the only metric that matters is EPS, and KKD has delivered every single time! Now, can anyone refute that?? Nah... didn't think so!

    KKD to the moon!!!

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    • or, too cut through all the technical nonsense and say it another way, it's priced too high

      short 2100 sh.

    • KKD is down well over 1% so far today on a relatively flat day for the general markets. In fact, KKD has continued to diverge from the major averages for many days now:^SPX,^DJI

      The institutional trading messages as measured by Thomson I-Watch have been almost exclusively sells over the last five days:

      Apparently distribution is continuing even as KKD drops through support.

      The 50-day ema is currently crossing below the 100-day ema; this could be an ominous signal. When it happened in June 2002, it confirmed the first major downtrend for KKD since the IPO, which brought sub-$30 share prices and lasted an additional year until the trend lines crossed back to positive in June 2003. We have been in a technical uptrend for the last six months, until now.

      We also happen to be at the neckline of a skewed H&S pattern. All we need for confirmation at this point is a violation of this level on increasing volume. With a bearish engulfing pattern forming today and the recent institutional sell interest, that confirmation could come today, which IMO could release yet more selling pressure from momentum players.

      KKD has registered 17 down days out of the last 21, and this as the general markets were hitting new highs.

      $37 being challenged now as I write this. One word of warning - technicals are severely oversold, bounces could be sharp, but IMO, risk/reward still favors a short position.

    • new_millenium_profits, thanks very much for your info regarding the source of your block info.

      Regarding Thomson, I think we basically agree that buy and sell signals can be used in an attempt to manipulate; we just disagree on the most advantageous way to do it. But we agree on the most important point, which is that the institutions appear to be distributing shares.

      Thanks again -

    • I will try this for the fourth time. Each time I have tried to post a reply to your earlier message, it goes into never-never land. I haven�t had this problem before.

      The service I use for the raw data is from Medved Quote Tracker. I pay for the premium service but they have a free and trial version available. I like it a lot and it gives me level II views, charts, news, etc. It is only one of several tools I use. I don�t know how many of the features are available on the free version but you might try and see if you can get the raw data there.

      The link for Quote Tracker
      quotetracker dot com

      The raw data is somewhat hard to use since it is a entry by entry log of the activity. It gives many entries where no trade took place but the bid or ask changed. The information given is date, time, trade price, bid, ask, and volume. The downside to the data is it doesn�t give the block size on the bid or ask prices. So you are correct in your statement that a large block may be broken up and sold to many small buys.

      As to the Thomson sell signals, I stand by my comment that I think the institutions are wanting to sell and there are no buyers apparent so they put a sell message out that is picked up by I watch looking for some big buyers. By putting the selling price just above the market, they can show their interest and size without the orders getting executed. These same sell orders seem to appear on the level II ask side and just about the time they get to be inside prices, they order disappears. I think this is how the institutions are trying to get buying interest going. I can see the same approach working on the opposite side when there are no sellers and they buyers want better prices.

      If you still are having trouble getting to the quote tracker link, send me an email and I will try to send you information that way.

    • new_millenium_profits, thanks for the reply. You wrote:

      << If the institutions were either buying or selling we would have had more large trades than small ones. >>

      This would be the case if institutions were selling to institutions, but not necessarily if institutions were distributing to retail investors. There are strong indications that distribution is occurring:

      << I think the messages on I watch are still managers trying to manipulate the price some just to get the buy intrest up. >>

      If that were the case, wouldn't it make more sense for them to display buy messages rather than sell messages?

      Thanks for the details on block composition. What is your source for that information? Thanks in advance...

    • I agree with you on the Thomson messages. There was a steady steam of sell signals starting out with some large messages and a continuous posting of sell intrest.

      Todays volume wasn't that bad at a little over 830K shares. Here is some other interesting facts regarding the trades.

      There was a trade just after the bell 4:32:02 at market close listed as 31,200 shares at 38.28.

      Of todays volume, there were 14 trades that amounted to 125,000 shares. There were 209 trades that took place with volumes of 1000 to 5000 shares amounting to a total volume of 328,400 shares.

      Bottom line of this information, roughly 1/2 the total volume was made in 225 of todays rough total 1654 trades. It looks like there are still mostly small trades coming in and not the institutions yet. If the institutions were either buying or selling we would have had more large trades than small ones.

      I think the messages on I watch are still managers trying to manipulate the price some just to get the buy intrest up.

    • KKD was down almost 1% today on a positive day for the general markets. In fact, KKD has been diverging from the major averages for several days now:

      Today also marked a significant increase in the institutional sell messages as measured by Thomson I-Watch. In fact, today was the first day in quite some time in which the messages were 100% sells, with no buys:

      With the share price dropping below the 200-day ema late last week, the institutions are almost certainly concerned about the stock's near-term prospects. (They, too, know how to read the charts.)

      Volume today was not huge (for KKD or the overall markets), but the KKD volume did represent an increase over Friday, and this marked the sixth straight down day for KKD while the markets have been mixed. Technicals are still approaching oversold, so a bounce would not be unexpected at some point, but the increasing selling pressure could easily cause KKD to drop lower through support before any significant bounce can occur.

      IMO, risk/reward still favors a short position.

    • It's interesting that the share price traded up to $39.28 today before falling back. $39.28 happens to be one penny below the 200-day ema.

      Most technicians agree that support is not violated until the stock trades below a given level for one entire trading day. So far today, KKD has traded below the 200-day ema. If it closes below $39.29, it will be the first time the 200-day ema has been violated since May 2003, when the stock was trading in the low $30's.

      Most technical indicators are still pointing down, but PRC and MFI have turned up slightly. While we are inching down toward oversold levels, the stochastic, MFI, MacD and Williams are all still bearish. And if support at the 200-day ema is violated today, that should generate some selling interest from traders and possibly institutions next week. (A bounce here is still reasonably possible if the overall markets rally, but that is looking less likely at this point.)

      I would expect some substantial support down to the $37.50 level. IMO, if that support area is violated on significant volume, the bearish H&S pattern will be confirmed, and there will be a high likelihood that we will see low $30's soon after.

      All JMHO -

    • "Time will
      tell who the dumbasses are."

      Time has already told "who the dumbasses are," dumbass.

      Wake up!

      The BIGGEST dumbass is the one whose post you responded to.

    • Excellent analysis!

      Longer term it is also dropping its relative strength ranking and lately is not even keeping up with the S&P.

      So, the fundamentals say sell, the technicals say sell. The only reason to buy this stock is to take profits on a short (but too early for that) or because your have hyperosmolar encephalopathy secondary to hyperglycemia from eating too many donuts. Time will tell who the dumbasses are.

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20.11+0.19(+0.95%)Mar 27 4:05 PMEDT