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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

  • aeye aeye Jan 9, 2004 9:48 AM Flag

    KK to open in the heavily, heavily

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    • It's a stupid bounce, but why so hi??? PLEASE, go dowwwwnnnnnnn!

    • Well,I've been kinda quiet lately finding no sense in this rally other than a silly bounce. I haven't heard anything from the Longs or in the research recommendations that is worth attacking for credibility. They just led the same old horse out of the barn claiming it wasn't a nag. Plain and simply my money is still with the Shorts as this is just A Crummy outfit run by whats appears to be a lousy management. Specialty PR and cooking books! EOM

    • Right you are .They have given us this rally not only as a test of our convictions but as a golden opportunity to SHORT more of the smoke and mirrors dog.

    • ... Wow, KKD's back heading through the roof! Time to cover??

      Easy boy, think for yourself. Herds come in many forms, don't join the Paniced Shorts.

      ... But how about that S&P upgrade? Something to think about.

      Nonsense. Read the recommendation. Parse out the logic:

      1) "Now selling at only 30 times (forecasted) $1.20 EPS in fiscal 2005.

      a) Some optimism. $1.20 is a 32% increase from "guided" $.91 in the year just ended.

      -- How sound is the $.91 in the first place, what with the negatives overhanging?

      -- And how about quality of earnings?

      b) And where did the $1.20 come from?

      -- Livengood?

      -- The analyst dreamed it up?

      And is 30 times tomorrow's pipe dream somehow cheap? For a donut chain??

      2) S&P further projects "25% - 30% earnings growth for the next 3 years based on:"

      -- "Expansion"

      Of what? Where? "Fresh" concept is a flop. Theater stores are reaching saturation by self admission. England? China, for Crissake?? Montana Mills???

      -- and "Same store sales increases."

      Hell, SSS has been demonstrated to be a loaded figure. And boosted by low-margin cold wholesale volume.

      -- and "widening operating margins."

      How widening? Where are the economies coming from? KK's been dropping prices, not raising them. And increased mix of low-margined cold wholesale gums the works.

      ... You don't seem to think the S&P upgrade means much.

      No. And S&P's target of $43 for KKD is not earthshaking either. But the market being what it is today, who's to say the impact. Short term.

      ... And long term?

      Back to fundamentals. Stay the course.

    • It rose in the past on news that KK was building stores in England,Australia,Mexico,France,China and Canada. Where else can they go? They have yet to show a profit in these countries. It would be more desirable if they could show profit figures from these ventures rather than fill us with these stories. Show us some results like earnings from these ventures instead of how big the market is.

    • Really? Look at this chart, below. Did it take "really phenominal" news to move it from low 30's to high 40's (42% gain from May to August)? No. Long-term, this stock will come back and break it's high, make more cycles, and continue to climb, all because it's a profitable company with positive cash flow and a strong product/brand.

      http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=KKD
      =======================================
      Subj: Re: How Elephants May Be Thinking
      By: new_millenium_profits
      Date: 02/08/04 10:37 pm

      This is why I believe KKD has more downside potential than upside potential. It will take some really phenominal news to change this pigs direction.

    • Investing,

      You sound like you believe someone is manipulating the stock price at any given time. The price is controlled by supply and demand and there always needs to be a buyer and seller and a meeting of the minds. To get a rise in price, you are correct that some good news would increase buying intrest and possibly find people willing to pay higher prices to those willing to sell with the hope that the demand for the stock will continue causing the price to continue to increase.

      To get a short squeeze, there has to be a large demand of short covering causing the stock to raise in price since there would be fewer people selling. The other form of short squeeze could come from the people (institutions) who loan the shares to shorts calling back the shares. If that would happen for any reason, that could cause a quick pop in stock price.

      For the stock to continue in the decline in price there have to be more people willing to sell than there are buyers. In this case, the largest portion of stock is held by the institutions who are already very exposed to the recent decline in price. I am mainly talking about Fidelity who purchased a large portion of their position at prices above $40. At best, Fidelity has to be getting close to their average share cost. If the next earnings announcement is marginal to bad you should expect many of the institutions to scramble to exit their position or minimize their risk by selling large parts of their position. Who will buy their shares and at what price.

      This is why I believe KKD has more downside potential than upside potential. It will take some really phenominal news to change this pigs direction.

    • They've tried to run the shorts continuously since August and it just doesn't happen and won't. SI is declining ! There are 12,000,000 shares short and 75,000 ,000 shares long with the trend ,fad,sales per store,novelty openings all down. You have yo be dreaming to expect a Short Squeze as the fundamentals are declining and the carb concious public wants no more Lardnuts. Let em try selling their Tarheel grease and sugar balls in China. Won't sell there either. This is a dying fad!

    • all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy all work and no play makes jack a dull boy

    • I talk to myself on a yahoo chatboard


      .......schizophrenia?


      really?


      .......yes


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KKD
17.41+0.19(+1.10%)Apr 29 4:02 PMEDT