Wed, Jul 30, 2014, 9:58 AM EDT - U.S. Markets close in 6 hrs 2 mins

Recent

% | $
Click the to save as a favorite.

Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

  • goldenjim26 goldenjim26 Jan 26, 2004 10:34 PM Flag

    Old but Wise

    As an "old timer" in the market with rather conservative investing objectives I would not usually pick a stock like KKD to follow. Back in my time I would have been buying the stock just on the short interest alone.
    I don't own the stock nor am I short but I couldn't help posting a message on this board. With so much negative sentiment I'm scared for the "average/novice" investor who has shorted this stock. The pros I'm not so worried about but they're not usually the ones on message boards.
    With all the positive and negative news/rumors already incorporated into the stock price - hence the Efficient Markets Theory - this is one stock that looks ripe for a rather substantial run.
    In my humble opinion, KKD is no stock to get caught on the short side of. I've seen too many short squeeze horror stories.
    Unless all you longs are posting negative things on the boards in order to create negative sentiment for a more intense short squeeze in the near future! Now that would be smart and you would have fooled this old man.
    I probably won't be buying the stock in the near future and I definately won't be shorting it. I will however continue to have my weekly treat at the Krispy Kreme store. Whatever the case is for you, do your due diligence and invest wisely.
    Good Luck to all.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • "I only know about you what you post"

      And I only know about what you post: BS

    • Interesting I am not quite as old as you and even though my position is large and Short I of course disagree. You may have seen that recently the SI dropped by 1,200,000+ shs with no perceptible impact. After the recent two day blip it probably lost another 500,000 shs of SI. The shorting is based on sound fundamental analysis and heavy insider selling and I believe most shorts are here for the duration as I certainly am. Since you are a neighbor I would like to know which store you visit as I know most all of them in SW Florida.Glad you still have your health considering your diet. I shall post what I hope are some interesting thoughts in the next several days. I think that you may find them of interest. The best research here is by divursefi,millenium,Diogenes,genericwhiteguy,perspicator and occasionally nofear although hes stuck on daytrading. Do some DD on these posters and you'll see why this is an excellent Long term short. Almost identical to the Boston Chicken model and you will see negative articles soon I believe. We've done our homework and I believe well!

      • 1 Reply to Puttemout
      • You forgot tell him that you are "very wealthy," that you "ARE one of the big boys," that you are short $1M to $2M KKD, that you "were a very successful market specialist," and that you are a "former member of the Rekeyser pane."

        Those credentials alone would have convinced goldenjim that your advice should be adhered to.

        I know they have convinced everyone else on this board.

    • Very wise. But I think you are right, the shorts on this board are trying to console themselves that their gamble will pay off. History repeats itself, and they'll get fried like last October. They think they are experts consoling each other, when in reality, as you say, they are at the mercy of the big fish. The big fish... that made the big run-up last week... while everyone was trying to figure out why it was rising so fast with out a reason (esp. since the alledged KK corruption and Atkins were supposed to kill the stock!).
      ===========
      Old but Wise
      by: goldenjim26 (78/M/Saint Petersburg, FL) 01/26/04 10:34 pm
      Msg: 83113 of 83118

      As an "old timer" in the market with rather conservative investing objectives I would not usually pick a stock like KKD to follow. Back in my time I would have been buying the stock just on the short interest alone.
      I don't own the stock nor am I short but I couldn't help posting a message on this board. With so much negative sentiment I'm scared for the "average/novice" investor who has shorted this stock. The pros I'm not so worried about but they're not usually the ones on message boards.
      With all the positive and negative news/rumors already incorporated into the stock price - hence the Efficient Markets Theory - this is one stock that looks ripe for a rather substantial run.
      In my humble opinion, KKD is no stock to get caught on the short side of. I've seen too many short squeeze horror stories.
      Unless all you longs are posting negative things on the boards in order to create negative sentiment for a more intense short squeeze in the near future! Now that would be smart and you would have fooled this old man.
      I probably won't be buying the stock in the near future and I definately won't be shorting it. I will however continue to have my weekly treat at the Krispy Kreme store. Whatever the case is for you, do your due diligence and invest wisely.
      Good Luck to all.

      • 1 Reply to bernmutt3
      • Butt,

        "They think they are experts consoling each other, when in reality, as you say, they are at the mercy of the big fish. "

        By the way, who is consoling you right now? Or don't tell me you are in the black with KKD?

        "The threat to shorts is much more serious than a few more stores"
        If you really think the threat of shorts is serious, then you really know nothing about investing (for many, many reasons). I welcome shorts in other stocks that I own. Think about it.

    • Wise words indeed. I would add that if you are contemplating shorting this stock, don't even bother unless you wouldn't sweat a runup to at least $46 or even more. Also, remember, never put more than 5% of your capital in a single stock (this also goes for shorted stock). If every short would follow rules like these, it would be pretty hard to have short squeezes with stocks like KKD.

      IMHO, a short squeeze with this stock looks very unlikely at this point. Most people that shorted within the past 6 months or so should be solidly in the black. The last runup that we saw a few months ago to almost $50 looks right now like a very worst-case scenario. I believe the conditions regarding how KKD is perceived were much better when the stock was around $50 than now. Only thing that has changed is that now KKD has a few more stores. On the other side, we all know how the balance sheet has deteriorated since.

      Good luck and stay cool. Remember, it would be impossible for KKD to follow a straight line down. If you can't take the ups and downs, and if you can't be patient, stay away.

      • 2 Replies to delaurenthis
      • The balance sheet looks fine. They have a large debt, but have no trouble servicing it. And despite the Atkins threat, it has no significant impact.

        The threat to shorts is much more serious than a few more stores. With each new store, it's that that much more introduction to the public... many people are still "discovering" KK. The more the public knows about KK, the more they like it.

        Awesome product and branding. The stage is set for another short fry like last October.
        ===================
        I believe the conditions regarding how KKD is perceived were much better when the stock was around $50 than now. Only thing that has changed is that now KKD has a few more stores. On the other side, we all know how the balance sheet has deteriorated since.

 
KKD
15.44+0.08(+0.52%)9:51 AMEDT

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.