The Corporate Fact Sheet was updated AGAIN today. We are now 10 lower than when p scooper gave his interview (339 vs. 349) which shouldn't even include satellites.
In other words, the franchise number dropped a further 3 today (198 to 195) and I'm quite sure this didn't include the Chicago, Rockefeller Center, Boynton Beach stores as these weren't factories.
Additionally, and I'm embarrassed to say, I THINK company store count dropped an additional 1 or 2 today (on top of the 2 MD and the 1 MI), but store closings are happening so fast I can't keep them straight.
For the record, Company stores = 144, Franchisee stores = 195
I know Franchisee stores were 198 going into last weekend and I THINK company stores were 148 (but they may have been 147 or 149).
I suspect you're onto something here (as usual), Di_vur. The franchisees may be in an uncomfortable box - wanting to take rational actions, but limited by the franchise agreement on the one hand and their bank agreements on the other. If they push too far in certain directions, they could risk losing their franchises and then there's no hope for recovery. In working with KK, both parties need to deal in good faith, but who wants to spend years litigating claims that the other party was unreasonable? These issues might help explain why some franchisees feel the need to make kissy-face with Cooper as the blogger suggested.
I heard quite a while back that when the franchisees close a store it triggers a repayment in full on their loans against the property. I suspect that's a big reason why franchisees aren't closing more locations.
I have a feeling that the franchisees are being pressured by kkd to not close stores, i.e. it is a violation of the franchise agreement to close a store w/o kkd's permission.
-Lincoln Spoor's outrageous opening in Montana.
-Centioli's comment regarding Anchorage, something about using the small shop to fulfill his opening obligation.
-Amazing Glazed backtracking on report of 3 closings, calling them relocations or some such nonsense
-lack of franchisee closings, as you state
Another factor is that the franchisees can't afford to close, i.e. that's tantamount to bk. We know Reinis wants to close a bunch of stores (he's explicitly said that) but for some reason he doesn't. Why not? Because closing w/o bk is expensive.
Ah. Now I see why you think GCFF may cut its factory store count in half. They may not want to publicly agree, but your logic works.
It seems a little strange that the company store count has dropped more than the franchise store count. The franchisees have the double handicap of lower sales and higher costs (royalties, brand fund, supply markups).
The slide shows retail bottoming at $20,000 after approximately 6 years. This sounds about right (maybe it doesn't take that long and maybe the bottom is in the high teens).
otoh, the wholesale component is just not realistic given the massive overcapacity, i.e. the wholesale side is much smaller (at least outside the Southeast US) than the slide indicates. In most, non-Southeast U.S. cities, the entire wholesale market could be more than satisfied by one factory (270 dozen doughnuts per hour); in 2 million plus markets, one commissary could handle it (600 dozen doughnuts per hour).
The gcff blogger is talking about 1 factory per 2 million people (inferred by his target of 50 satellites with 4 or 5 satellites per factory in his 20 million person Socal market).