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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

  • mr_sixfigures mr_sixfigures Mar 10, 2006 6:41 AM Flag

    di_vur_se_fi's discourse destroyed!

    Oh happy day! All the endless conjecture and fuzzy math have been flushed straight down the toilet and KKD enjoys the green arrow.

    I love vindication!

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    • i don't think KKD is burning anythin close to 5mm per month. maybe 1-2mm. the significant sources of cash burn are one time payments, which you did not include. 6mm to NED, maybe 2mm in the GI case, maybe 1-2mm to settle Lone Star...and more..

    • It is silly to try to estimate a date of bankruptcy from the thresholds in the loan documents.

      If the creditors want to stop lending, they have multiple events of default that they can use as excuses to stop. If they want to keep KKD going, they can always keep lending more money.

    • "All together, this takes us to the end of july. But then we need to take into account that cooper might take longer to restructure JVs than Brewste takes to find investors. well...could that be? ya. so maybe 4 months. End of august. So that's my new prediction. By the end of august ch.11. "

      Are you assuming KKD now has open credit, or they will secure another multi-million loan?
      We have estimated burn rate to be north of $6M per month. We know that they are paying at least $1.5M in loan interest per month (at least $150M in debt). So let's say they are just losing $3.5M per month on operations (for a total of $5M per month).

      We know credit availability as of October 30 was $58 Million. Burning an average of $5 per month since then, would add $50 Million to the debt by the end of August. I think they will run out of money much, much earlier. Or are you assuming that miracleously they have reverse trends and the burn rate is now much smaller than $5 M per month? How could they get to the end of August with their current credit situation?

    • ok fine. let's call it a truce for now.

    • Thanks man. Listen, have a good weekend and good luck.

      Just watch your ass on this one.

    • "Nothing personal, but I am of the opinion that you bend the facts to fit your position, rather than the other way around."

      Precisely! They bend the facts like a pretzel. Actually, I often a get some great laughs by reading these guys' posts. It's humorous to see how far they will reach in their attempt to twist every shred of news (or even lack of news)into a sign that KKD is going bankrupt.

    • Search for truth.

      Long or short, I ask the same questions.

      About the rocket, by the way. If the screw crashes the ship, it matters.

      Nothing personal, but I am of the opinion that you bend the facts to fit your position, rather than the other way around.

      I did not start out criticizing you, I offered an opinion which which you disagreed. Remember? I think Brewster is good news for the doughnut, you disagreed.

      You started referring to your analysis, I think it's misplaced and prefer my own. You said you and others are working a lot harder than I, I think I am working a lot smarter than you.

      We shall see.

      But I wish you well, we can disagree amicably.

    • why do u even care man? r u long short? potential long potential short?

      i don't get it...why do u hang out here?

      i'm short. how about you?

    • you just don't seem to value hard work...

      if you believe that you know the answer better than others, than please join the conversation and the analysis.

      repeatedly accusing people of doing something bad and pointing out what they did wrong is not the way. As an exanple, di_vur predicted the demise of GI, FR, NED and KremeKo....basedon numbers...and on some legal facts.

      Imagine I walked into a NASA rocket-building-factory, and they did 995 of their building perfectly and one little screw was not in place. Imagine that I proceeded to criticise them for it non-stop, IN RETROSPECT, despite non knowing anything about rocket science.

      that's what you're doing. capish?

    • Thanks, I'm aware of that. Certainly not the prettiest picture in the world, but it can be viewed from a couple of angles.

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