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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

  • HedgeFundPro HedgeFundPro May 1, 2006 9:48 AM Flag

    Bad News/Good Tape

    As I said when they pre-announced, bad news with good tape action can be very powerful. The numbers do SUCK, but obviously there is more going on below the surface. It is not just uninformed investors buying here. There are institutions who like the turnaround plan, and i'll preface it with a "for now" qualifier. Technically, the day chart ad week chart still look strong. Good luck to all.

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    • < i would love for you to prove that. and proof would not be that 'berkshire' held it b/c there are people within berkshire and its subsidiaries making investment decisions that aren't buffett.>

      You didn't read the news article. Calling it insurance was dumbing down what is specifically a "long dated index put option" for people who don't understand options. You didn't read Berkshire's annual report where the long dated "put option" was documented (page 73). And don't try to convince us that Buffett's allowing Ajit Jain or anyone else to make $14B(!) stock market bets, that's his job.

      And don't portray yourself as some kind of a "buffett expert". If you were you would have been aware that WEB and Munger have both discussed how options priced via standard option pricing formulas such as black-scholes can occasionally provide value investors with very compelling opportunities. And Munger has commented on how Buffett has taken full advantage of those opportunities.

      Also, I read your comments about liquidity and KKD debt levels. They were so wrong that I didn't even want to spend the time in correcting you. Perhaps diversify thought likeways. But I recommend you read KKD's most recent filing on liquidity, since it contradicts almost everything you wrote.

      Lastly, I wish you would buy many more shares of KKD at current prices. And tag every post with "strong buy". There are many people here trying to figure out how bad KKD's situation is, including those who pointed out these problems when KKD was at five times these prices. If you refuse to benefit from their analysis, I'd enjoy seeing you bet against them. I for one, have loaded the boat with long dated puts on KKD.

    • What was your point, and could you explain what I don't get about LTCM? I thought I understood it pretty well from Lowenstein's book, but maybe you have more expertise on the subject than he does.

    • "LTCM...you can't be serious. The $14 billion headline number is the exposure if the indices he wrote puts on go to ZERO. That's not going to happen..."

      ....yes, I too read the article. You missed my point entirely and I guess you missed what the real problem was with LTC.

    • Lady,

      You are stupid as hell to still be denying that Buffet engages in options after reading that. Actually, you are stupid as hell for thinking a man of his wealth and accumen would not be involved in derivatives even without reading that article.

      Oh yea, you're the brain trust that said stops are inherently illogical.

    • there are a few message boards with smart ppl who discuss BRK. go there and try to argue that buffett did not decide on the SP500 of the 14B market bet. There have been some huge discussions on the subject already, as a matter of fact. this is not the place or time to discuss this.

      buffett has nothing to do with KKD. we bought puts and have done fundamental analysis on KKD, end of discussion.

    • LTCM...you can't be serious. The $14 billion headline number is the exposure if the indices he wrote puts on go to ZERO. That's not going to happen, but Berkshire could afford it if it did. LTCM went down because they were leveraged 100 to 1 and the spread between different securities moved maybe 50 basis points more than they expected.

    • <this article is talking about insurance contracts that berkshire is 'creating' to sell to someone else. he is not 'buying' a put contract>

      Too lazy to even read the whole article and too dumb to understand it.

    • i could go on about that article for hours, however, just a couple quick points.

      1. these idiot reports often will substitute 'buffett' for a berkshire subsidiary.

      2. this article is talking about insurance contracts that berkshire is 'creating' to sell to someone else. he is not 'buying' a put contract

      3. the article speaks of buffett having derivatives. he bought general re with derivatives already on the books. he has subsequently been on a mission to unwind all those derivative contracts.

      berkshire is a hell of a complicated company with all its subsidiaries. to assume that 'buffett' is making every investment that berkshire reports is stupid.

    • ...interesting article...makes me think back to LTC...Buffett is fully capable of making a big mistake.

    • Another typical attempt by divursefi to lie in order to try to have something to propagandize with:


      Subj: Re: Bad News/Good Tape
      By: di_vur_se_fi
      Date: 05/01/06 10:35 am

      Most of the Mexico stores are nothing more than supermarket kiosks.


      Yeah, right:

      http://www.krispykreme.com.mx/

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