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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

  • bluehorseshoe12 bluehorseshoe12 Jul 18, 2006 10:28 AM Flag

    KKD Technicals

    $8 was a 50% retracement from the recent high of $12. $7.60 was a refusal level from the previous leg down in the end of June, and was a 55% retracement. $7.60 could now act as resistance to a resumed advance- we'll see. The recent lows over $7.10 encountered price support established this past Spring. More importantly, that level is a 61% retracement from the $12 highs, and a 61% retracement is a number that has some significance technically. IMO- the uptrend that started in 10/2005 at $4 is still in force, but it's now entering a key area where some constructive bottom building needs to happen. The breakaway up-gap on this morning's intra-day chart is right along those lines.

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    • Sounds like a bunch of gobbledy goop to me.

    • Come on blue... Let people see the original thread back in July... Are you right like you were then??? LOL! Succa Rally..

      GO SHORTS!!!

      • 1 Reply to insidewatching
      • I couldn't find that thread... Plus some doofus started another thread with the same topic, obviously a weak attempt to obfuscate my trading and technical brilliance.

        If you find it, by all means fire it up, and we'll look back nostalgically...

        BTW IW- your new cartoon is happening. Is that what all the metrosexuals say these days? "happening"? Clue all of the old "straights" like me in to what the hip metrosexuals such as yourself deem to be cool these days.


    • Not a very convincing decline, on mediocre volume, which doesn't impress. It has moved lower in the past 2 weeks though, and if it keeps eroding it will be in the $6's soon, despite some of the indicators' dis-belief (and my own) in the down move. :o)

      This is an important area right in here (low $7's). This area represents a 61% correction from the $12 highs, and I'm looking carefully at whether it will truly find support in here (which so far it has). If so, I may average down from $8 and buy more here, and additionally use a close over $8.40 for a 3rd supplemental buy.

      Lastly there's a price gap from March in the high $6's which is also a possible support level ($6.57-$6.85), and that happens to coincide with the up-trendline from the lows in Oct and Jan, crossing that area in late July. It's shaping up to be very interesting, very soon. I'm looking for a move back to $12 to re-test those highs.

      • 1 Reply to bluehorseshoe12
      • <I may average down from $8 and buy more here, and additionally use a close over $8.40 for a 3rd supplemental buy.>

        Caution, Will Robinson, caution!!
        At this point, I would suggest you wait until after July 31st to buy some more. This deadline probably will be irrelevant, but first I want to see what happens with the financials for 2006.
        If things look good on August 1st, there will be time to buy.

    • Well, in the short term, the technicals say it's getting a little overbought and is due for a retracement soon (which I'm sure remo will pounce on opportunistically and claim that the party is over and it's headed down to new lows), but in the long term, the company and the stock will do just fine, and it should go back to double digits eventually, as I've always expected.

      • 1 Reply to hedgehog25
      • Not sure its good to see ya Hog. You again seem full of yourself. KKD is still a dog. If it makes it to five or a bit over I'll be out with some opportunity cost but a big profit.

        Talk to me about TNRO.ob. As I recall you were the small cap BB expert. Rather than being so arrogant. Remember you specifically posted that I got you out. Keep that in mind as you flame on.

    • Well, well! The 61% retracement area near $7.10 held pretty good, huh? Today's strong up action, new high just prior to the close, and the fact that the close held to the highs, are all positives.

      The 15-min intraday chart shows a consolidation pattern with a slight up bias, projecting a move near-term up to $8.35.


      • 1 Reply to bluehorseshoe12
      • Another good day with some follow thru, albeit on paltry volume. Still, the intra-day chart shows KKD forming a descending bull flag, projecting price to $8.30, in support of yesterday's consolidation pattern which targets a move to $8.35.

        So in honor of today's positive action, I wrote a little ditty- (sung to the tune of "California Here We Come")

        "Eight-and-a-half BUCKS,
        Here we come,
        Right back where we started from,

        Well, they're just BUMS!

        Here weeeee come............."

        Happy trading all! :o)

    • 61% retracement. To be honest with you this seems silly. Why does 61% have any significance?

      We have some type of NEWS for KKD between now and July 31st. Will we see financials or NOT. If so what will the financials look like. Will there be another covenant waiver? These news events should have more significance than the technicals.

      • 1 Reply to mister_bobblehead
      • 61.8% is a Fibonacci number, and occurs, along with others, in price retracements (aka corrections). It's just one of the many things I look out for. Of course it's silly (to you). But no more so to me than calling oneself "mister_bobblehead". :o)

        Besides, along with my "feel" for this stock, tech analysis has made me some good trades, which I posted on this board in real time. I've only seen two other posters here that have done the same. (Remo, and Mr_Six)

    • no sell offs blue....KKD has seen its low at final low at $7.50.....
      jmho off course man

      Darn! I wanted to load up one more time at $7....


    • no sell offs blue....KKD has seen its low at final low at $7.50.....
      jmho off course man
      Nothing has changed. Still overvalued. Still poor fundamentals. Technicals still show indecision. Still a $8.50 upper pyschological limit. I would not get too excited about a three cent gain. It is just a matter of time before it tumbles. It might be next week or it might be six months, but it will tumble. And you will have plenty of opportunity to pay $7 stock for all the stock that you want.

    • Sharply and consistantly down from a peak of .39 on the 13th indicating liquidation of positions.
      PS Note this decline has taken place as volume has accellerated. Not a good sign for bulls on this stock. Look for a break downward.

    • Nice day for the doughnut. The 3-day pattern looks good for a bottom. I see next resistance at $8; after that, a re-test of the mid $9's. Support in the low $6's. Have a pleasant evening.

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