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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

  • undervalued_investments undervalued_investments Oct 7, 2006 3:48 PM Flag

    Masterfull Cooper

    You have to tip your hat off to this guy, all along this year he has stabilized KKD and the stock is even rising.
    Last year this company looked like such a sorry mess. But this year, there have been basically no bad news, and apparently the financials are now stable. Minimal store closures. Signing of several new international franchisees. What a superb job.

    It will be very interesting to see the Q3 results in December. I predict KKD will have a small profit for the quarter. This should be the norm for subsequent quarters.

    The international expansion should kick off big time next year.

    Go Brewster!!

    Go KKD!!

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    • >Nice try. That was June 27, 2006 "At present, the >consensus is that the company will post earnings of 25 >cents a share for the year ending January 2007."

      >We are now in October 2006. That information is old and >stale and inaccurate.

      Nice try?? Did I ever say I just saw the consensus estimate was 25 cents? No!! I remembered seeing the 25 cent figure in yahoo as well as somewhere else, and now I have provided proof. I recognize when I make mistakes, I hope you too.

      Sure, lots of things can happen in 3 months. For example, the last asian franchisee agreements were probably not revealed until after this. I also understand that if KKD does not make earnings of at least 15 cents for this quarter, it probably won't reach the 25 cent consensus for FY2007. 15 cents is only about $9 million, about the same as the increase in cash they reported for Q2. So these 15 cents may be doable. We will just have to wait and see.

    • I agree. He has bubbled the case for the longs so badly...

    • Nice try. That was June 27, 2006 "At present, the consensus is that the company will post earnings of 25 cents a share for the year ending January 2007."

      We are now in October 2006. That information is old and stale and inaccurate.

    • >Looks like another case of pumping...

      >A singular source instead of sources (plural) and it
      >(singular) was wrong.

      >We are still waiting for those other sources.

      >Could the other sources been those fax sheets that are >sent out by pumpers..."Hot Stock Tips" or "Get in on the >Ground Floor"???

      At your service:

      http://advisor.investopedia.com/news/06/Not_All_Doughnut_Chains_were_Created_Equal.aspx

    • �Question for all shorts: so, if KKD financials are truly terrible as you guys think, why has the stock traded at these levels for such a long time?�

      �There must be something that you don't know that the big institutions that own this stock know. You cannot dupe so many people for such a long time. My guess is that they see tremendous potential for this company that the right management can unleash. JMHO.�

      Answer to number one. Pumpers and guys like you that buy into their baloney. There have been many, many cases of pumped up stock. Do some reading on �pumping and dumping�

      Answer to number two. Don�t you get it yet that the business plan is thirty years old? Have you been into a Starbucks lately and a KKD lately. How much more room does KKD need to set up their donut line showing off the �donuts made in front of your eyes� than does Starbucks� or Cinnabon� need for a profitable point of sales?

      In case you don�t know the answer, I will help you. KKD needs about two to two and a half times the floor space compared to Starbucks or Cinnabon�. That was fine as long as land and floor space was cheap and there were no serious competition. Now with savvy rivals like Starbucks, Cinnabon, etc., KKD is facing serious competition with an thirty year old business model.

      Look for the institutions to reduce there exposure to risky investments. Small Caps and Mid Caps were providing some better than average returns. Now institutions are adjusting there portfolios.

      Do you want to see what a big investor did in the recent past that will be the pattern for the near future? If so, check out Courage Capital Management, Llc and DDIC. And yes Courage Capital Management, Llc is a big owner of KKD. Read through the SEC filings for DDIC. They start in Dec 03. Courage Capital gets in around $85 and the price of DDIC is up to $135 in less than two month.

      http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001005794%2D03%2D000425%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2003%5C12%5C22%5C&CoName=DDI+CORP&FormType=SC+13D&RcvdDate=12%2F22%2F2003&pdf=

      In a two more monts (March 05) Courage Capital is off loading stock.

      http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001005794%2D04%2D000257%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2004%5C03%5C31%5C&CoName=DDI+CORP&FormType=SC+13D%2FA&RcvdDate=3%2F31%2F2004&pdf=

      Did you notice that Courage Capital is reducing its sake in KKD? I would not going to bet against Courage Capital after seeing what happened to DDIC. Friday DDIC closed at $7.87 that is a long way off from $135.


      Do you get it yet???

    • >Here is the earnings summary from AOL: (who knows where >they get their numbers)

      Now, unless these guys are getting insider info, nobody should know what last quarter's EPS were. These guys should have indicated that this is THEIR OWN ESTIMATE, and not the official financial results put out by the company.

      >Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD)
      >
      >8.47 -0.01 (-0.12%)
      >as of 04:02 PM EDT on 10/06/2006 (NYSE Delay: 20 mins.)
      >
      >Earnings Summary for: KKD
      >EPS (TTM): -0.19
      >
      >Last Quarter's Earnings: -0.58
      The company did not report this number! Where did this guys get it? Ans: they are making it up!

      >Last Fiscal Year Earnings: -3.22
      OK, for FY2005, this sounds about right.

      >Analyst Consensus: Sell
      >Last Dividend: 0.0
      >Current P/E Ratio: N/A
      >Current Quarter Estimate: -0.03

      Glad they wrote it is an estimate.

      Question for all shorts: so, if KKD financials are truly terrible as you guys think, why has the stock traded at these levels for such a long time?

      There must be something that you don't know that the big institutions that own this stock know. You cannot dupe so many people for such a long time. My guess is that they see tremendous potential for this company that the right management can unleash. JMHO.

    • Undervalued,

      Congratulations on your latest post. It's beyond satire.

      Here is the earnings summary from AOL: (who knows where they get their numbers)

      Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD)

      8.47 -0.01 (-0.12%)
      as of 04:02 PM EDT on 10/06/2006 (NYSE Delay: 20 mins.)

      Earnings Summary for: KKD
      EPS (TTM): -0.19
      Last Quarter's Earnings: -0.58
      Last Fiscal Year Earnings: -3.22
      Analyst Consensus: Sell
      Last Dividend: 0.0
      Current P/E Ratio: N/A
      Current Quarter Estimate: -0.03
      Analyst Company Sentiment: Neutral
      Next Fiscal Year Estimate: N/A
      Dividend Rate: 0.0
      Next Report Date: 12th of Never (mea culpa, I filled in a blank here)

      Here's the consensus of one from the Nasdq site:

      Fiscal
      Quarter End Consensus
      EPS* Forecast High EPS*
      Forecast Low EPS*
      Forecast Number of
      Estimates Over the Last 4 Weeks
      Number of Revisions
      Up Down
      Apr 2005 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 1 0 0
      Jul 2005 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 1 0 0
      Oct 2005 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 1 0 0


      Quarterly Forecasts
      Yearly Earnings Forecasts



      Fiscal
      Year End Consensus
      EPS* Forecast High EPS*
      Forecast Low EPS*
      Forecast Number of
      Estimates Over the Last 4 Weeks
      Number of Revisions
      Up Down
      Jan 2006 0.045 0.14 -0.05 2 0 0

    • HONESTLY YES. I AM SURPRISED. I NEVER IMAGINED COOPER/KKD >>>>>>>NOT ONLY CONTINUE TO STONE WALL INVESTORS ON FINANCIALS SO FAR BEYOND ANYTHING THAT IS CREDIBLE FOR CATCH UP ACCOUNTING BUT BUY INTO FLUFF LIKE A NEW CEO ON THE JOB OR PR'S ABOUT THINGS WHICH ONE DAY JUST MIGHT HAPPEN.<<<<<<<

      >>>>>>>NOR COULD I HAVE IMAGINED THAT INVESTORS WOULD NOT HAVE REVOLTED AND WALKED GIVEN THE LACK OF FINANCIAL AND THE HORRIBLE UN-OFFICIAL REVENUE AND NON-SPECIFIC PROFIT FIGURES.<<<<<<<<


      Isn't that enough for you to change course.....do you insist on being crushed?

    • Are you pumping to convince others to hold on or are you trying to convince yourself?

      You are delusional if you think the Krisp Kreme� is going to make much difference in the international market. Cinnabon�, Starbucks�, etc are already there. Have you ever traveled to the Middle East? I did not think so or you would not so gullible. I have traveled there extensively and recently.

      Krisp Kreme� is going to face the same competitive market that they are here in the US and KKD is going to struggle there just as they are here. This is not the very first western franchise to go to the Middle East. So any that think expansion into the Middle East is going to save KKD better just take their money and get on a jet. Go see for yourself. And oh by the way, do you realize the prime market in the Middle East � those that have money � also have a huge problem with obesity. Seems that they pack on 10-20 pound DURING Ramadan. They don�t eat during the day but they eat all night long. Family feasts. Great desserts of traditional recipes. They are not going to eat many Krispy Kreme donuts either at night during Ramadan or the rest of the year when they are trying to lose the weight that they put on during Ramadan.

      And by the way, the money that you spend to fly to the middle east and back will cost you a lot less than you are about to lose on this stock.

 
KKD
17.41+0.19(+1.10%)Apr 29 4:02 PMEDT