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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

  • mr_sixfigures mr_sixfigures Nov 29, 2006 6:00 PM Flag

    Here's my really, really serious take on KKD.

    No smack talk. I'm getting serious.

    First, you can't ignore the fact that this stock is +16% over the last 12-weeks, and +68% YTD. There's some serious money to be made trading KKD, and that's what I've always said on this board. A long term investment, no. A way to make fast money, YES!

    I use about five different sources to research stocks, including my Fifth Third advisor and VectorVest (which I love!) Fair market value for KKD is about $6.67 but it still gets a HOLD rec from most analysts.

    There's a lot of negatives here, that's no secret but KKD's ability to resist severe and/or lenghty declines is substantial. If I was holding KKD at this level I'd put a sell target of $10.79, and a buy @ $9.00

    If KKD hit's $9.00 or close to it, I'll get back in and ride it up to $10.80 for a 20% return. Just look at all the institutional and mutual fund holders of KKD. It's still very much a viable stock.

    I wouldn't want to be short here, I'll tell you that much!

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • "EPS $0.44/share
      EY (Earnings Yield) +4.47% This may be used in place of
      P/E for valuation.
      Earnings Growth Rate -5.0%
      P/E 22.5
      Sales Growth -25.0%
      VST (Value/Safety/Timing) Currently rated 1.02 on a scale of
      2.0 which is considered to be fair."

      I'm assuming these numbers are for FY2007, right?
      So let me get this straight. They think they will earn 44 cents a share. We know they lost at least 1 cent in each Q1 and Q2. Are we to believe that somehow earnings will jump to at least 15-20 cents just for Q3, and maybe 24-29 cents for Q4? This estimate is far more optimistic than Penney's 19 cent estimate for FY2007. And how could they have a negative earnings growth rate of -5% if last year they had a substantial loss and this year they are estimating a whooping 44 cents of earnings? I don't think that service is worth the money you are paying for.

      BTW, if they do manage to report $0.44 EPS, this stock would become a screaming buy, given the circumstances.

    • >O.k., since you asked nicely I'll share some extra info with you. Keeping in mind that I don't suggest KKD as an investment, but as a trade. You can buy low and sell high relatively easy.

      Thank you. I appreciate the info. Good luck with your trades.

    • O.k., since you asked nicely I'll share some extra info with you. Keeping in mind that I don't suggest KKD as an investment, but as a trade. You can buy low and sell high relatively easy.

      EPS $0.44/share
      EY (Earnings Yield) +4.47% This may be used in place of
      P/E for valuation.
      Earnings Growth Rate -5.0%
      P/E 22.5
      Sales Growth -25.0%
      VST (Value/Safety/Timing) Currently rated 1.02 on a scale of
      2.0 which is considered to be fair.

      Consensus: KKD is overvalued with somewhat below average safety and currently rated a hold.

    • >Like I keep saying, KKD is not an investment. It's a trading stock, and you have to be aware of it's trends to make money. You'd be well in the black had you bought KKD just one year, six months, or even three months ago. It's still trending up.

      So can you tell me at least what your service has for KKD's earnings estimates?

    • <<Listen, I would love for KKD to go to 12 or higher...>>

      No, I don't think it will hit that either. That's why I put a sell target of $10.79 in a previous post and then buy on the dips around $9.00.

      Like I keep saying, KKD is not an investment. It's a trading stock, and you have to be aware of it's trends to make money. You'd be well in the black had you bought KKD just one year, six months, or even three months ago. It's still trending up.

 
KKD
19.29+0.28(+1.47%)Dec 19 4:10 PMEST

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