>>The sheik is thinking of some of his other investments... you know... not the ones that are 1% of his net worth. And i also bet he's thinking that Ahmed Samy or whoever the trader, is a retard.<<
It seems to me this may be a bit different from his "average" investment. He now has stores that sell the product, he can see it and taste it. There's a good chance that him or whoever bought the stock had a chance to talk to his people in the stores, assess the potential, etc. etc.
>>In my opinion this is "it". I am willing to bet that there's better than 50/50 chance that KKD stock will never again trade above $8. At over 25x declining EBITDA this is still crazy expensive. <<
OK, I'll bite. How much are you willing to bet? How long is "never"? You guys have been wrong so many times, I don't think there is much chance this time you will be right.
Haven't you (short) guys not learnt anything in the past 3-5 years? If it wasn't the sheik this time, some other high-profile organization would own the stock. Don't you guys get it? This company is not destined to fail. At least not anytime soon.
>>And if you look at what's going on in credit markets over the past 6 weeks, there's a good chance that next time KKD violates covenants (and they are experts at doing that) the lenders will hike the interest rate. <<
The current situation with the credit markets did not start last week or last month. Why didn't they hike the interest rate this past time? I am sure the lenders want to work with KKD.
<<You guys have been wrong so many times, I don't think there is much chance this time you will be right.>>
huh? wrong? shorts have correctly reconstructed the company's EBITDA from scratch, without ANY financials for a period of over 2 years, and when the financials were finally filed these estimates were very similar to the actual EBITDA. Shorts correctly predicted the bankruptcy/liquidation of numerous franchisees and even the liquidation of specific INDIVIDUAL stores. Shorts predicted that Brewster will fail in turning around EBITDA and that he will not expand into a satellite model. Shorts predicted covenant violations multiple times. Shorts predicted that Penney will downgrade the stock... and much more.
The only really significant thing that shorts got wrong is the stock price (and perhaps also the unwinding of KZC fees). And sure, at the end of the day it is only the stock price that matters. But that final straw is now being layed on the camel's back.
So, you may live on a planet where shorts have been wrong, but here on earth shorts are exactly right.
<<I am sure the lenders want to work with KKD.>>
So am I. Working with KKD means not sink them into bankruptcy, but rather bleed them with interest and fees and forced liquidations.
Very well said, UI. In fact, after reading your inspiring post, I may just have to buy more! Or at least pick up a dozen doughnuts! And listen, I'm in NC on the coast this week, and they are selling them at Food Lion and they taste great! Let's see if the "meme effect" happens today. Lately whenever meme shows up it's good for a bounce in the stock. So let's hear it- Three cheers for meme!!! :o)