Why will it eventually breakout to $9... $10... $15? Why is it down 30c in midday trading? Why is it volatile?
Breakout: it will because the company is putting together a string of quarters that show steady and demonstrable improvement and profitability. The market is skittish on this stock so management needs to "prove themselves first" so to speak. Reporting a positive EPS for the 2011 year (likely somewhere in the 12c to 15c range) will be huge for this stock. Also, now that the stock is comfortably above $5, mutual funds/etc will be permitted to buy the stock as part of their portfolios (ie: increased stock demand).
Why down 30c today and so volatile: because the stock is volatile. And it's volatile because of short squeezes, profit taking, lack of sold base of analysts who follow it (which is a plus in my book actually). When it has a moderate jump, it could turn into a sizable jump because of short covering. With a huge jump (like 53c yesterday) may folks want to take that profit.
It'll go up a bit from here leading into and following the announcement is my bet. But then right back to occassional swings.
Tomorrow, my best guess, is that they will report 0-1c for EPS.
I have been posting all year and gave a set of predictions which have come true. All year, I have been saying that it will close the year in the $6-$7 range. And next year we will see the stock climb to float between $8-$10, the year after mid-teens.
The stock has had a long stretch with ~$5 as the ceiling. With the announcement on Wed and the following one in late Jan time frame showing a full EPS profit for the year, the stock should zoom. The $8-$10 COULD be on the low end -- especially if mgmt finally decides to restart paying down the debt again. But I'm sticking with the $8-10 range for now.
Now the the $5 glass ceiling has essentially been broken... the next barrier will be $12. It will take putting consecutive positive EPS and growing years together to pierce that barrier in a sustainable fashion.
The stock COULD hit $25.... but that wont be for at least 4-5 years.
In the mean time... remember, the stock will be highly volatile. Huge gain days followed by huge loss days. Buy on dips.