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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

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  • glsierra glsierra Jun 1, 2011 10:54 AM Flag

    A bigger sell off is on the way, could lose $8.00 today

    KKD will outperform the SPY (S&P500) for some time to come. Dips will be driven mostly by overall market pressures. The smartest trade for next 3 months is short SPY and long KKD - play the spread.

    Can KKD dip to $8... $7.50....even $6. Yep. But it would be on the back of the S&P dipping below 1,000.

    I have been studying and following this stock very closely for 2 years. It's "interesting" to see the new wave of bashers, pumpers, etc come in.

    I'll clue you in on something I learned over the two years. This stock spikes leading up to announcements. Shortly (over next week or two) it dips a little. It's the same phenomenon every time.....

    Shorts get squeezed on the good (expected and actual) news which causes spike from buying. Shorts cover on the day of so spikes again for next day or so. Clearly that creates an "overbought" situation so it dips. New suckers come in to the market thinking 'oh it's going to tank, TRAILING P/E is high, etc so i'm going to short it'. Drives price down a bit. Then earnings season comes back, they have to cover again. Lose some money and the cycle repeats itself.... for 11 out of the last 12 quarters.

    There you have it. How I made my bank$ on KKD.

 
KKD
17.70-0.44(-2.43%)12:10 PMEDT